Daily Times

Afghanistan is once again
going through a difficult transition period in its modern political history. The US-led coalition forces are packing-up to leave Afghanistan in or before 2014. This withdrawal deadline ignites severe anxiety among Afghans as it reminds them of being left alone in the 1990s when the Soviet Union withdrew resulting in a horrific civil war, with some calling it a regional war, in Afghanistan.

Afghans do not want another war starting in 2014; instead, they want to build on their country’s many unprecedented achievements, and live in lasting peace. While the zeal to do so is high among the Afghans, this seems a daunting task for an Afghan government and nation that still needs to put a lot in order and reconcile with many unhappy players in the region. To be able to do this successfully and avoid the 1990s scenario, Afghanistan needs genuine and long term international commitment and facilitation.

While many things need to be worked on domestically to prepare Afghanistan for assuming responsibility for its own security and stability post-2014, it is indisputable that the country needs to have harmonised and fruitful relations with its neighbours, particularly Pakistan.

Modern Afghanistan finds itself cramped between the conflicting geo-political interests and competition of India and Pakistan. The two nuclear-armed states have fought direct wars in 1948, 1965, 1971 and 1999 to protect their interests in the region; they might do so again if required. This hostile relation makes breathing space thinner for Afghanistan. Siding with one of them alienates it from the other, and invites furious resentment. History is a proof that Afghanistan cannot afford to do so especially when it wants to have lasting stability post-2014.

Thus one is compelled to ask important geo-political questions: What should Afghanistan’s relations look like with the regional countries, mainly its eastern neighbour post-2014? How can it develop a national regional policy that helps develop good bilateral ties with both Pakistan and India? Should Afghanistan pick sides, or should it accommodate both?

These questions are difficult to answer, yet an insight analysis and conclusion of the situation could be framed to predict the future.

Considering its serious economic underdevelopment and inability to meet its fiscal gap, Afghanistan is compelled to accept aid from any international partner, including the emerging economic power in the region: India. India is happy to provide billions in aid, and it has already contributed two billion dollars to Afghanistan reconstruction efforts since 2001. This relationship makes Pakistan uneasy and raises security concerns in Islamabad.

Afghanistan’s answer of being respected for its sovereignty in accepting aid, and building relations with any country is not sufficient for its eastern neighbour because of Pakistan’s national interests and worries. Abandoning India is not in the national and economic interests of Afghanistan simply due to its dismal economic circumstances and its historic harmonious relations with that country.

Many Afghans in Afghanistan speak emotionally about modern Pak-Afghan relations, and a blame game scenario is impossible to avoid when those relations are discussed. Afghans would blame the ‘wrong policies and intentions’ of its neighbour for many of the difficulties Kabul faces today. Many in Pakistan, however, would disagree and point the finger back at Afghanistan for some of the contemporary problems in Pakistan. This is visible when one watches an episode of the Ansoey Marz or On the other side of the border TV show, where Afghan and Pakistani political experts discuss Pak-Afghan relations live and face-to-face from Kabul and Islamabad.

The blame game has gone on and on for too long now. It can easily be concluded that there is a fundamental mistrust and lack of confidence between the two great Muslim nations that share a 2,640 kilometres (nearly 1,500 miles) long border.

It is in the interests of better Afghan-Pakistan ties for both countries to put a stop to the ballooning and ongoing mistrust and instead work genuinely towards being good neighbours, respecting each other’s sovereignty, and seeing each other’s development as an opportunity for their own growth and prosperity. This is a hard to attain ideal situation; however, there needs to be a start somewhere to eventually reach that goal. Instead of picking sides, Afghans need to give it serious thought and take the lead on how they can develop a national regional policy that utilises positive support from both the regional countries, which does not allow for Afghanistan to be a chessboard.

The policy should include such diplomatic approaches that turn a seemingly incompatible and divergent competition from the two regional countries to a positive one in Afghanistan’s development; it does not allow for any of the countries to see Afghanistan as a threat, and eventually wins their respect for being an intermediary ally where the two countries can sit together discussing solutions to bilateral and regional issues. Yes, this sounds way too ideal, but not impossible if there is unity among Afghans, the right leadership and commitment from all sides, honest cooperation and an effort to win buy-in from all the three countries in the region.

The national policy should point out how Pakistan, which already has 2.5 billion dollars of annual trade with Afghanistan, can build on its economic gains if it invests in a stable Afghan economy, and Afghanistan provides the necessary linkages for connecting Pakistan to the unexplored Central Asian markets and energy resources.

India should also be mindful of their gains from investing in Afghanistan’s economic sectors and enter into a positive competition with Pakistan in Afghanistan’s development. Both Pakistani and Indian firms should be invited to compete and invest in Afghanistan’s education, particularly higher education, in investing in Afghanistan’s health sector, and in the booming construction and infrastructure development sectors; none should be privileged over the other in getting contracts.

In addition, Afghanistan can utilise building positive bilateral relations with both the regional powers increasing more cultural exchanges, sports activities, and formal transportation services such as the Afghan-Pakistan bus services to build on creating confidence and true trust. Furthermore, recognition should be given to the free visa both Pakistan and India provide to Afghanistan. The process should be simplified and made a lot easier for both Afghans and people from the two countries coming and investing in Afghanistan. Tourism should be encouraged and facilitated, and people should be encouraged to build on the shared culture and deep-rooted religious ties in the region.

Such positive relations can then evolve into enabling people in the two countries to discuss and resolve the contentious issue of the Pak-Afghan border (Durand Line) in a legitimate, reasonable and mutually acceptable manner.

Doing all of the above is difficult and sounds too idealist; however, this can be a starting point for developing a realistic approach that recognises the need for having harmonious relations among Afghanistan and the two competing nuclear nations. To facilitate the development of such an ideal approach, international support, especially from the UN, SAARC, the Istanbul Process, etc, should be mobilised and made instrumental and effective. In addition, specific power-brokers, such as the UK and the US, should be mobilised to make things work better. If done on time and correctly, Afghanistan can avoid becoming a chessboard once again.

People in Afghanistan, as well as the people of these two nuclear states, want lasting peace and development in the region. Their policy makers should respect what the masses want, and cooperate towards making it a reality, which is not an insurmountable difficulty.

The writer is an Afghan analyst on geo-political, economic and social affairs in the Afghan-Pak region. He is a Fulbright Scholar, who has also studied at the Willy Brandt School, University of Erfurt in Germany. He is currently an active member of the emerging civil society in Afghanistan