Daily Times

The sufferings of Syrian people during the country’s ongoing civil war seem endless. Both sides, rebels as well as the Bashar al-Assad regime, are tone deaf to the plight of their own people. With over 70,000 dead, a million refugees in neighbouring countries and internally displaced people approaching the four million mark, it is a country where future has no meaning. And the prospect seems to be of even more bloodshed.

According to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Assad regime has weakened and can now count only on the loyalty of 50,000 troops down from 220,000 at the start of the country’s civil war. John Chipman, the Institute’s director-general, reportedly said, “The cumulative effect of defections, desertions, battlefield losses and damage to morale will weigh heavily in determining the outcome of the conflict.” Notwithstanding that, the regime still has overwhelming superiority in heavy weaponry and aerial warfare that gives it an edge against the rebels.

An important component of the Syrian situation is the oxygen it is getting from external factors. It is no secret that Assad regime is getting significant arms supplies from Russia. Regionally, it is getting arms and other help from Iran. Without such help, it would not be able to last. On the rebel side, they are getting arms and financial help from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, other Gulf kingdoms and Turkey.

The US and European countries are pitching for the rebels and providing them with considerable assistance, though there is some reluctance so far to provide lethal weapons. Their reluctance is dictated by the fear that these weapons might fall into the wrong hands, as some rebel groups reportedly have links with al Qaeda and other terrorist organisations. Despite this, the United Kingdom and France appear poised to break ranks with other members of the European Union and might, in the near future, start funnelling arms to the rebels. As for the US, there are already reports that the CIA is playing a role in weapons supplies to rebels through Qatar and other regional countries. An effective mechanism to vet these supplies falling into al Qaeda linked groups is still a worry, though the CIA is said to be playing a role in this as well.

One such group causing utmost concern is the Al-Nusra Front with its 5,000 highly motivated fighters and links with al Qaeda in Iraq. So much so that the US placed it on its terrorism blacklist in December. It has been very effective in fighting the Assad regime and, reportedly, has set up a religious council to administer rebel-controlled areas in eastern Syria, apparently to create an Islamic order based on Sharia law. The US’ attempts to isolate it from other elements of the rebel forces do not seem to have worked because for most of them their immediate priority is to bring down the Assad regime, and the Al-Nusra Front is making a strong contribution to this end.

Al-Nusra Front is the kind of jihadist organisation that worries the west. As British foreign secretary, William Hague, said recently, “Syria today has become the top destination for jihadists anywhere in the world.” He added, “We cannot allow Syria to become another breeding ground for terrorists who pose a threat to our national security.” And he has some reasons to worry, with reports that hundreds of British passport holders, some already known to British authorities, have travelled to Syria to fight against the Assad regime. It looks like Syria might be turning into another Afghanistan as a centre for terrorism.

And here is the conundrum. There is a fear that if the west does not effectively help the opposition in Syria, and that will mean supplying arms to the rebels, its leadership is likely to be taken over by jihadist elements. On the other hand, if they do supply arms and these weapons fall into jihadist hands, the extremists with al Qaeda ties will come on top to rule if and when Assad regime is overthrown. It is increasingly a Catch-22 situation. In any case, King Abdullah of Jordan, with his country hosting a large number of Syrian refugees as well as ferrying arms to the rebels, recently warned that Assad regime was doomed and an Islamic fundamentalist state was likely to emerge, not a palatable option between an existing murderous regime and the purveyors of hate and sectarian violence.

In the midst of a recent controversy about the use of a poison gas killing 25 people near Aleppo, with both the Syrian regime and the rebels accusing the other of using it, there is even more vigorous demand for greater arms assistance to rebels. Britain is reportedly supplying hundreds of chemical weapons detection and protection kits for Syrian rebels. And President Barack Obama has warned the Assad regime of crossing the ‘red line’ of using chemical weapons against its people.

One effective way to neutralise the Assad regime’s advantage in aerial warfare will be to put up a ‘no flying zone’ over Syria, as was done in Libya. But in this case, with Russia and China against it, there is a clear danger of further widening the conflict in the Middle East. In other words, the situation in Syria is getting worse because of its external ramifications involving the region and major international players.

Already the Syrian war is spilling into Lebanon, with sectarian killings as well as Hezbollah’s involvement in support of the Assad regime. At the same time, Israeli-occupied Golan Heights is emerging as a flashpoint with Israel making noises about a determined response to any cross border spill. It recently destroyed a machine-gun post in Syria, alleging that two Israeli patrols had come under fire from across the ceasefire line in the Golan Heights.

Turkey is deeply involved on the rebel side. A recent meeting in Istanbul of the Syrian opposition chose a naturalised US citizen (of Syrian descent), Ghassan Hitto, as interim prime minister to create a semblance of an alternative government. But the reported resignation of Mouaz al-Khatih, president of the mainstream Syrian opposition coalition days after Hitto was chosen as interim prime minister, only betrays further disunity among the rebels’ leadership. The recent unseating of the Assad regime from the Arab League in favour of the Syrian opposition might look like a gain for them, but such symbolic gestures are unlikely to resolve the rebels’ greatest weakness, which is their lack of unity and coordination.

Syria is turning into a series of military enclaves under different rebel groups. It is difficult to imagine that an opposition interim government, lacking any real authority and control over rebel groups, will become any more credible than the existing situation. So far, the situation remains stalemated. Which means more hell for the country’s civilian population.

The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia. He can be reached at sushilpseth@yahoo.co.au