Daily Times

The election campaign in
Pakistan has started, and the actions of the returning officers and Articles 62 and 63 will be discussed in another article. In this article I wish to indicate what issues the future government is likely to face. The voters need to be warned about the responsibility they have on their shoulders, and it is important to consider the following dangers the nation is facing before electing the future government.

A shocking book, Losing Pakistan, has been published and quoted in the media in relation to Richard Holbrooke’s visit to Pakistan and his meeting with the president in Islamabad. Mr Holbrooke worked as a special representative to Afghanistan and Pakistan in Obama’s administration. Before his death in December 2010, Mr Holbrooke wanted broad and deep engagement between these two regional players.

He had an ambitious approach and wanted strategic dialogues between the two countries, wanted to reach out to civilians and have discussions on energy and electricity, water and equal rights for women. This article is based on the statement by Mr Vali Nasr, Mr Holbrooke’s senior advisor at that time. It is about a meeting with the president of Pakistan and what transpired in that meeting. In that meeting President Zardari asked for 100 million dollars, as Pakistan was important and the US had a long-term interest in its stability. The US wanted to engage in a big way and to change the course of its relationship with Pakistan. However, President Obama and his administration never agreed to this approach and decided that a policy of confrontation would achieve the goals vis-à-vis Pakistan in a better way.

Pakistan is seen by the US and most of its allies as nuclear-armed, close to a conflict with India, in what could be termed as a dangerous civil war with its own extremists, and is now subject to one of the most brutal terrorism campaigns against its population due to a huge sectarian divide. The US believed that if it did not maintain influence in Pakistan, the latter will not be able to survive.

Holbrooke died. There were two schools of thought and the one in opposition to Holbrooke won. Subsequently, in 2011 three major incidents crashed the relationship between the US and Pakistan: a CIA contractor Raymond Davis killed two people in Lahore; US Navy Seals carried out a raid to get Osama bin Laden without informing Pakistan, and towards the year-end 26 Pakistani troops were killed in a cross-border shooting.

In a recent interview, the leader of the Awami National Party (ANP) Asfandyar Wali Khan said categorically that after the 2014 pullout of the US from Afghanistan, it will become extremely difficult to restrain the Taliban who are already shooting the ANP candidates, one by one, in the present election campaign. At the time of writing these words, a few candidates from different parties in Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have been targeted and killed. I do not think this killing spree is likely to stop, and it may even spread across the country and target the top leadership soon. This seems to be the continuation of other attempts made to sabotage the elections.

Another study by the US Congressional Research Services of February 13, 2013, titled ‘Pak Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Security Issues’ says that serious attention is required for the production of nuclear weapons and safety of the weapons in Pakistan. The study says that Pakistan is continuously producing nuclear weapons and the Pakistani nuclear arsenal probably consists of 90 to 110 nuclear warheads, or even more. This study shows that Pakistan is producing uranium, and that Pakistan’s Bagalchore mine was exhausted and closed in 2000, and now uranium comes mainly from the Qabul Khel Mine, Nanganai Deposits and Taunsa Deposits. According to the study, Pakistan is getting about 40 tonnes of uranium per year. This study argues that Pakistan’s own resources of uranium and plutonium have been in the focus of experts as they are significantly large and enough for production of a nuclear arsenal. It has also tried to confirm the continuing nexus between China and Pakistan in the nuclear and missile field. The experts pointed out that Pakistan is producing nuclear weapons at a rapid speed and its tally could significantly increase in a couple of years. The study concluded by saying that if the Pakistan authorities do not take appropriate action, they would go on worrying about the exercises of the US to take control of Pakistan’s nuclear stores, and in the present circumstances, the US authorities have limited options. A substantial decisive action by the US cannot be ruled out to control Pakistani nuclear technology.

With this backdrop of a strained relationship between Pakistan and the US, the imminent pullout of the US from the region in 2014, and the growing concern of the world in relation to the Pakistani nuclear arsenal, the present elections become extremely important. With terrorist campaigns against the population, a huge sectarian divide with an appalling law and order situation, lack of jobs, and water and electricity shortages, the future leadership has huge challenges ahead.

Only a stable, sensible and experienced team will work, with more dedication than in the past, to take Pakistan forward. Internal security matters are not less important than the attention needed for regional peace. A very balanced relationship between India, China and the US, and a massive effort to uplift the economy are required. On the other end, any vulnerable and inexperienced government and with far-right ideas will affect not only Pakistan but the region. There are ominous predictions about the disintegration of Pakistan, and only a wise leadership can prove this wrong, but quite clearly it is not an easy task.

The writer is a former PML-N parliamentarian and freelance writer