Daily Times

Vice President of the Pakistan Businesses Forum (PBF) Ahmad Jawad expressed concern that flour prices are set to spike further; he suggested that the government participate in the market by releasing stocks to moderate market mood over the upside potential of wheat prices.

He stated that over ten months had elapsed since last season’s crop was harvested and the market began to dry up. He added that stockists in Punjab and some districts of Sindh quoted wheat between Rs 2,550 and Rs 2,650 per maund.

Similarly, the Punjab Agriculture Department warned the federal govt’s wheat review committee that the province will be unable to meet its amended sowing target of 16.7 million acres due to rising fertiliser prices. According to Jawad, government officials are portraying the urea shortage as a sham.

Our persistent appeals to keep agriculture out of politics were met with deafening silence. “Everyone is now witnessing the devastating consequences,” he continued.

He believes that the artificial shortage of fertilisers in certain locations will have an effect on the per-acre production of wheat this season.

Pakistan’s upcoming wheat harvest is in jeopardy due to a severe urea scarcity that has existed since the start of the sowing season. Regardless of the government’s assertions, farmers continue to pay between Rs 2,500 and Rs 2,700 for 50kg bags, compared to the officially fixed pricing of Rs 1,768.

While the government asserts that there is sufficient supply of the product, growers fear that continuous shortages may also affect sugarcane and maize crops, posing a threat to the sugar and poultry industries.

Despite the fact that the federal government increased the objective for this season from 27.3 million tonnes last year to 30 million tonnes. However, the federal government was unable to assure the supply of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea fertilisers, despite the Agriculture Department raising the matter well in advance, in September.

Farmers bore the brunt of the government’s mismanagement in the end.

“Yes, there are numerous reasons for the supply and demand imbalance. Farmers are even being accused of panic buying. This may be true to some extent, given the bulk of smallholders lack the financial means to do so. They queue for hours merely to obtain a handful of bags of urea after establishing their farmer status. Yes, the middleman may be able to purchase greater quantities for a higher profit margin in the future,” Jawad stated.

Keeping growers in lineups for hours in order to provide critical input was a grave injustice. This behaviour could pose threats to both local and national security.

Additionally, the PBF VP asserts that the Pakistani Sona Urea brand has been trafficked into even Central Asian states for years due to its high quality and inexpensive price. This year, its smuggling grew significantly, and some local intermediaries stockpiled the compost in order to gain some additional cash on the illegal market.

He asserts that the country was in surplus in terms of urea compost and alludes to a recent request by urea makers to the federal government for permission to export the surplus commodity. The government’s response exacerbates the problem. Ministers are discovered justifying higher pricing by referencing overseas prices. The most heinous aspect of the entire issue is that it was predicted, and hence avoidable. The government received adequate warning and time to respond before the problem deteriorated. Punjab raised the alarm on September 15 of last year.

The country has produced record amounts of wheat, maize, and rice in the last two years, and the government has often taken credit for bumper crops. This increased production might be attributed to one of two factors: an increase in area or per acre yield. Per acre yields, as measured in the case of wheat, increased as a result of extra fertiliser application, hence increasing demand.

“I believe there will be a wheat scarcity,” he said. Now, fears are that the following season will be similar, as the majority of wheat monitors are concerned about the crop for a variety of reasons. Though it is too early to predict the crop quantity with accuracy, they estimate it will be about 25 million tonnes. Citing a variety of agriculture-related issues, they believe the crop is destined to suffer; how much is unknown at this point. Naturally, the imbalance would be closed by imports.

On the other hand, farmers were in debt as a result of rising diesel and energy prices, as well as general inflation. He noted that many of them were unable to apply phosphorous fertiliser. It is possible to include here that Pakistan’s wheat production is likely to increase in the future as a result of Sino-Pak collaboration, according to China’s Yunnan Academy of Agricultural Sciences (YAAS).

Yunnan and Pakistan have similar climates, wheat varieties, and agricultural circumstances, but they also face common issues such as stripe rust, drought, and high temperatures. As a result, wheat varieties and technologies can be applied directly to one another.

YAAS will continue to consolidate collaborative research on wheat breeding, particularly resistance breeding for disease, pest, drought, and lodging resistance, as well as high-yield breeding and multi-functional breeding. KATI applauds the Prime Minister’s decision to reject the OGRA summary of the petrol price hike.