Daily Times

Two weeks to elections, so time to talk of possible outcomes. First about the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) that everybody, especially within the extended Mian family, thinks will win and form governments at the centre as well as in the Punjab, and possibly elsewhere too. The Mians were so sure of a sweeping victory that they refused to make any ‘seat adjustments’ with any other party. And the way they treated the poor members of the ‘unification bloc’ and other such is rather sad.

Anyway, if the PML-N does get its way then we will see Mian the Elder as president, Mian the Younger as Prime Minister (PM) and Mian the Minor as Chief Minister (CM) of the Punjab. And I am willing to go out on a limb and suggest that if the PML-N heads the central government then we will see the young Ms Mian brought into the Senate or the National Assembly to become the next foreign minister of Pakistan. One important thing to keep an ‘eye out’ for. If one of the Mians dashes off to London just before election-day for an emergency medical ‘check-up’, then all might not be well in the Kingdom of Raiwind.

Next comes the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) of Imran Khan of the tsunami fame. Khan along with many foreign newspapers and newsmagazines has already predicted that he will be the next PM of Pakistan. However, there is a persistent rumour going around among Pakistani physicians in the US that Khan has two functional clones in storage, one in Chicago and another in Houston, Texas that replace him when he visits the US. Those of us that think of such things find credence in this rumour. Just look at Khan when he is in Pakistan and then when he is in the US, clearly they are not the same person. So it is possible that with the PTI in power, clones will be allowed to contest elections? That could mean Khan as president, Khan as PM and Khan as CM of the Punjab, or maybe not. However, the success of the PTI will depend to a great degree on the participation of what Joe Pesci in the movie My Cousin Vinny refers to as the ‘yoots’. To win, the PTI will need many ‘yoots’ and their ‘aunties’ to come out and vote for it.

The Mutaheda Qaumi Movement (MQM) will win as they always do most of the urban seats in Sindh, and then try to make a deal with whichever party heads the government at the centre so that the MQM can keep the governor’s position in Sindh and get the federal ministry that controls the port of Karachi. Discerning readers will wonder about cloning and Altaf Bhai. The response is simply that if we imagine two Altaf Bhais in the same room at the same time could both come out in one piece?

The Awami National Party (ANP) may not get an A for past governance but they must get at least a B for bravery. If the persistent attacks on the ANP candidates continue at the present rate, party faithful just might come out in strength and cast their votes in its favour along with a significant sympathy vote. If that happens, the party may well maintain its electoral dominance in the KP province. If, however, the terrorists can significantly depress voter turnout then all bets are off.

As far as the religious parties are concerned, they should collect their expected five percent or so of the seats but it is unlikely that they will be a major electoral presence since they have not been able to come together on one platform as they did once before. Personally, I think that the only way out of the present morass that Pakistan is in is for the country to progress towards Talibanisation. Once we are firmly ensconced in the 12th century, all our major problems will disappear. That, however, is a topic that needs considerable elaboration not possible at this time.

The once mighty Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) still has a few ‘electables’ who just might win a few seats. If the PML-Q can get as many as 10 it might become a player albeit a minor one in the bigger scheme of things.

The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) will contest under the name of Pakistan People’s Party-Parliamentarians (PPPP), not the PPP but I will use both names interchangeably. That said, there are three possible outcomes, first and the one that most excites the ‘usual suspects’ is that the PPP will be ‘wiped off the face’ of Pakistani politics once and for all. Possible, but to partially quote Mark Twain, ‘reports of the death’ of the PPP over the last 30 years have often been ‘greatly exaggerated’. Second possibility is that the PPPP will survive but in a relatively diminished capacity, and third possibility is that it will once again emerge as the largest party and will form the next government at the centre.

And that brings me to the ‘man with the perpetual smile’, President Asif Ali Zardari, the former co-chair of the PPP. President Zardari is an ‘enigma’, most people cannot read him or figure out what he might be up to, and for all we know he might yet have more than a few aces up his sleeves! Whatever happens, President Zardari can well write a book titled ‘Zen and the art of being President of Pakistan’. Also I hope and pray that Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari lives a long and fruitful life.

As far as General (Retd) Pervez Musharraf, head of the All Pakistan Muslim League, ‘incarcerated’ in his farmhouse is concerned, he does make me feel a little sad. His problems remind of my favourite Beatles song, He’s a real nowhere man/Sitting in his nowhere lan/Making all his nowhere plans for nobody/Doesn’t have a point of view, knows not where he’s going to/Isn’t he a bit like you and me?

The writer has practised and taught medicine in the US. He can be reached at smhmbbs70@yahoo.com