Daily Times

On January 11, 2013, President Barack Obama and his Afghan counterpart, Hamid Karzai, reached a key agreement regarding the future of Afghanistan. The salient features of this agreement are as follows: the troops of the US and NATO allies will be replaced by Afghan forces during spring; the whole transition will be completed by the end of 2014, but the residual forces will remain in Afghanistan with the condition that the US forces will have legal immunity and economic transition will be focused on developing human capital growth based on the private sector, entrepreneurs, and Afghan’s natural wealth. It also includes that the process of reconciliation will be continued with the Taliban with support from regional countries including Pakistan. Pakistan being the primary stakeholder is very important as far as the future of Afghanistan is concerned.

The Pak-Afghan saga is an old one. In this story, there are two constants (Pakistan and Afghanistan) and a changing variable. The variable is always strong, which always plays a significant role in determining the rules of the game and future of the region. This variable is destructive, dominant, and a key player in the global power politics that disturbs the balance of power in the whole region. In international politics, the disturbance of the balance of power leads to shuffling in the existing power structure, creating unfavourable conditions not only for the citizens of the subject country but also for the neighbouring country. The former USSR and the US have been disturbing the balance of power in the region for their own interests, and as a consequence, have created turmoil in the region. Afghanistan has been their battlefield and Pakistan being the neighbouring country has been affected drastically. In the Afghan game, the field is always levelled with the help of Pakistan. The USSR in1979 and the US since 2001 are playing their war game leaving Afghanistan in a state of being a pariah. It is said that the Cold War lasted a long time; and the War on Terror is something that is not going to end.

The question is not when the troops are vacating Afghanistan, the relevant question is in what condition and state the US is leaving the country it has been lording over well over a decade now. Has the war been won by the US? What is the future of beleaguered Afghanistan and what are the future prospects for its neighbouring country, Pakistan? What role can Pakistan play in the smooth transition of power from the US and its allies to the Afghan people?

As far as the viewpoint of the Americans is concerned, some of them believe that Afghanistan is now in a far better condition as compared to when the US forces took over. As per the US claims, the country has been totally transformed demographically, economically, politically and socially. Women are free to move about and two million girls are going to school. The process of reconstruction and democratisation is almost complete. This beautiful picture may charm a few but the reality is sharply different from that painted by the Americans, leaving all questions unanswered.

World history shows that war is never a solution to problems; rather, it breeds a number of new problems. How can the longest running war in American history bring development? The flowers cannot bloom in the war-torn Afghanistan where millions of dead bodies are buried. How this tragic version of the Sesame Street comedy can be produced to bring a smile on the face of people whose young innocent children were smashed with ‘toy bombs’? The death of innocent civilians including children is not a story of the past, rather, it still continues.

CNN reported: “In January 2012, video footage emerged of US soldiers apparently urinating on Afghan corpses. In February, Afghans rioted after it was discovered that copies of the Quran had been burned in violation of Islamic custom at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. Last month, an Army staff sergeant allegedly went on a rampage and shot to death 17 Afghan civilians, including numerous children.” Is it not the defeat of the biggest civilisation of the world? Is it not the failure of a well-thought out strategy? It means there is less to celebrate and much to worry about.

Many Americans think that this war has been a waste of resources in contradiction to what the US government is stating. They view it as another Vietnam War, producing no positive end result. Robert Baer is a former CIA agent who spent most of his career in the Middle East. His book See No Evil has been lauded for its first-person look inside the Agency and for its analysis of events leading up to the war on terror. He said, “I think the situation there is going from bad to worse. Its incidents like these, which are dividing American troops from the Afghans. I just don’t see it getting better. Of course, this is an isolated event. It’s not the end of the world, but if it continues on like this — more or bad news, we’re going to have a very, very difficult time stabilising this country before 2014.”

On the whole, the major issue for Pakistan is how to establish a stable and secure Afghanistan. It is not only in the interest of Pakistan but harmony in the whole region depends on a stable Afghanistan. Terrorism and extremism is the common enemy of both countries. Significant leaders of Pakistan like Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto, Senior Minister Bashir Ahmed Bilour and countless innocent people have fallen victim to terrorist activities. Both countries need to focus on areas of common interest. It is hoped that Pakistan and Afghanistan will sign a strategic agreement by the end of 2013. Successful dialogue and bilateral agreements are imperative, especially when the 2014 deadline is approaching. Again, the problem of Afghan refugees holds much importance. According to an estimate, 1.7 million Afghanis are living legally, while one million are living illegally in Pakistan and their safe return to their homeland is in Pakistan’s interest. It is only possible if stability is maintained in Afghanistan for times to come.

The Afghan-Pak region has undergone a huge turmoil since the so-called war on terror began in 2001. Despite the massive expenditures and superior technology employed by the best-trained armies of the US, NATO and ISAF, the clear winners and losers are yet to be identified after the passage of 12 years. Afghanistan remains as volatile as ever with the writ of the Karzai administration not extending beyond Kabul with the prop of international security assistance forces. History bears witness to the fact that solutions imported from outside have failed in Afghanistan. It is about time all parties supported the peace and reconciliation process in the war-torn country. After all, all great wars come to an end through dialogue and engagement.

The writer is a freelance columnist