Daily Times

The New Year 2013 is here for all those fortunate individuals who have survived so far. Good luck to you. As the calendar has changed so has the political atmosphere. This year is special for Pakistan. It is, therefore, necessary to look at the possible future scenarios.

At the time of writing this article, a large movement is building up for ‘change’. Allama Tahirul Qadri held a mammoth congregation at the Minar-e-Pakistan and demanded electoral reforms before the next elections. The size of the congregation was so large that it was thought to be in millions. In his speech, he gave a deadline and announced a ‘long march’ to Islamabad if his demands were not accepted. The ‘long march’ is scheduled for January 14.

There are several reasons for the massive response Allama Qadri received. The public is so disappointed by the mismanagement of the present federal and provincial governments that it just cannot tolerate them anymore. An effort to bring a change is felt to be desperately needed.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf had been using the slogan of ‘change’, and it got some public support as well, but as it moved on, its ability to change kept losing its credibility. The last straw on the camel’s back was the declaration by the Taliban that they find Imran Khan acceptable with some others like the Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam, Jamaat-e-Islami and the PML-N. The populace of Pakistan, already wary of the Taliban, started to move away after this information.

The APML of General (Retd) Pervez Musharraf started to fit the bill as his condemnation of the attack on Malala was clear. He does not support the Taliban at all and he has an analytical, nationalistic, and enlightened approach. Many Pakistanis thought that Pakistan could do better under good leadership. Some started to move towards the APML. The period of Musharraf’s governance left nostalgic memories and some people felt that they would be better off under different leadership. People hoped that the change would be for the better.

These were some of the factors that worked in Allama Qadri’s favour. However, the resources, the skill in political management and media handling by his party cannot be underestimated. Such a well-organised publicity campaign and management has rarely been seen.

Allama Qadri’s sudden appearance after a long time gave some people the impression that it was ‘God sent’ help for the miserable people of Pakistan. For some time, the federal and provincial governments seemed stunned. They could not believe the extent of discontent. If they were aware of the public frustration, they did not expect that someone could rally the masses together. They thought that they could keep Musharraf away by political manoeuvrings and underhand tactics of typical old-fashioned FIRs and mudslinging. They had assessed Imran Khan, prepared a counter-offensive and hoped to control the elections to govern for another term. But the thrust by Allama Qadri, until then unknown, changed the scenario completely.

What does Allama Qadri stand for? He is known to have an ‘inclusive’ approach in religious matters rather than an exclusive one. He supports harmony in different religious segments against discord and animosity perpetuated by the Taliban and pro-Taliban political and religious segments. He definitely wants a change in the electoral system to free people from the stranglehold of the landlords and wealthy politicians. What he has not spelled out so far is how he wants to do it.

It is my guess that Allama Qadri may seek an electoral reform favouring ‘Proportional Representation’ as against the winner take all approach. In proportional representation, every vote matters and is reflected in the National Assembly. The highest recipient of votes gets the votes for the party. The others also get the vote for their parties and seats in the assembly are divided in proportion to the overall votes received by a party. Allama Qadri may demand the armed forces and judiciary to supervise the voting to avoid extortion. He may also demand an interim government of consensus at a wider level and not limited to only an agreement between the ruling parties and the opposition. If my guess is right and he succeeds in achieving these things, then we may even see a new era of change.

The Tehrik Minhaj-ul-Quran of Allama Qadri has so far received unconditional support from the MQM, which is the most disciplined and organised party of the country. Its support lends a great deal of strength to Allama Qadri’s narrative. The APML is the other party that has announced its clear support to reforms. Both these parties are contributing manpower to the march. The PML-Q announced its support, but it is not participating in the march.

Surprisingly, some sectors of the media are busy finding fault with the movement generated by Allama Qadri. They harp on minor things like his dual nationality, prolonged absence from the country, etc. What do all these objections matter if his movement does good to the country?

As I am writing this article, the MQM chief, Altaf Hussain has raised an interesting point. He has reminded people that in 1947, Quaid-e-Azam took over as the Governor-General of Pakistan, a ‘Dominion’, and his oath contained allegiance to the British Crown. Does this mean that he was not loyal to Pakistan? Nothing could be more ridiculous. The dual nationality issue is ridiculous in any case. Pakistan survives on the billions of dollars sent by expatriates and the insecure members of the National Assembly do not want them to compete in higher political positions! It is only a ploy to keep persons who are more competent out of power.

Mass movements start unexpectedly. The basic requirement is intolerable conditions when the masses believe there is nothing left to lose. This is the reality now. Pakistanis have lost electricity, gas, income, security of life, jobs, education, the environment and so on. They are losing self-respect and the image of a workable nation. What more is there to lose?

The writer is a former DG Pakistan National Council of the Arts, Secretary Arts Council Alhamra, COO of ICTV US, head of several business delegations to European countries, specialist in arts management and cultural diplomacy. He is an expert callishtenist, dramatist, researcher, and the author of 8,000 years of the People of Indus Valley. Presently, he is the Central Vice- President APML and General Secretary, Punjab APML