Daily Times

Here we go folks, we’re about to step into another hostile era in all probability. The story is that amid the recent contestations between the two superpowers: America and Russia, the former’s long-held monopoly is shrivelling up as it is being met with an immediate showdown by the latter, which is all set to reassert its control over the states that once formed the Soviet Union. Apparently, a broader campaign, it purports to the expansion of the Russian sphere of influence, a concept American diplomats have already rejected. Though the animosity between the heavyweights never faded out anytime among history leaves, it never has fomented in last three decades this way as it could be seen right at this moment!

What’s going on by the way?

Well, the high voltage drama began when the United States Permanent Mission to the United Nations in Geneva saw a failed diplomatic dialogue with Russia, where they both were seen furiously refuting each other, foaming at the mouth, while leaving floundering UN to look like even more hapless.

This is for sure that imperialism isn’t going to fade away.

Biden’s national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, didn’t seem to hold back any punches. In his exact words, he goes: “We have been very clear with Russia on the costs and consequences of further military action or destabilization.” A loud and clear warning sign for Russia to hold back if it is having any such violent ideas up its sleeves!

So is this it? Do we have any chances of reconciliations, cordiality reflowing, or any resurrecting shades of settlements? Honestly, from the Russian end, it is a dead end. If you doubt us, let’s catch up with someone from the Russian high office: Deputy foreign minister, Sergei A Ryabkov, who terms the outcome of failed nexus–Europe and America–to deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine as a “dead end.” Yes, you’ve heard it right, dead-end!

Is Moscow playing between contradictions?

If on one hand, Russia demands that NATO, an alliance founded to contain Soviet power, drastically scale back its presence near Russia’s borders in Eastern Europe, it is playing between too many contradictions to date. While tens of thousands of Russian troops already amassing over the peripheries of Ukraine, President Vladimir V Putin’s assertion of having no interest in invading Ukraine is deemed as another tactical strategy he is well known for.

The strength of Russia’s “sphere of influence” and America’s superpower status is certainly the key players here, ready to lock horns, while the background goes fading. It is said that any time warping to the 1980’s styled confrontation has been ruled out since the dynamics of contemporary wars are changed. The experts say that the power matrix has evolved more into digitals than just material. The physical invasion of 20th-century styles has either gone a bit obsolete or it might simply leave a bad taste in the mouth owing to several socio-political modifications that happened in last two decades.

So the wars aren’t going to be fought on battlefields and rather on computers, right?

The answer is “partially yes.” The cyber attacks are on the surge. Amid Ukraine’s conflict with Russia, the cyberattacks targeting Ukraine’s government websites have gone beyond numbers. The hackers posted a message, recently, on the site of the Foreign Ministry saying, “Be afraid and expect the worst.” As expected, the provenance of the hacking could not be delineated.

Despite Putin’s prodigy at Cyberattacks to influence elections, United States’ soft-power influence in former Soviet states could not be snubbed considering the lion’s share of technology gadgets are yet to be flown in from America. Therefore, it looks quite cumbersome for Russia to beat America in a technology face-off.

Besides technology, Moscow might face a strong disagreement from former Soviet republics’ youth that is now having “a degree of liberal yearning” and impartial attributes have grown among them, contrary to what their forerunners possessed. The younger generation doesn’t want trouble and they are not as battle-hardened and rugged as their predecessors were. If Moscow ropes in with any territorial expansion adventure, the perils might wreak havoc on multiple fronts, including chances of development of insurgencies within Russian terrains, backed up by non-state actors. According to the former British ambassador to Russia, Andrew Wood, if Putin goes for the kill, it won’t be easy for him to safeguard reputation and cordiality with youth: “It’s a big mistake. Being a successful bully lasts for a time, perhaps, but it doesn’t make you love somebody.”

The United States, having actively participated in several meetings at Geneva, Brussels, and Vienna to dissuade Russia from its vehemence intentions towards Ukraine, looks all set to combat on propaganda platforms. With Washington already accusing Moscow of sending diversionists into eastern Ukraine that could provide Putin exculpation for sabotaging Ukraine, it looks like the diplomats have called it a day!

So what would happen if no dialogues exist? Is war imminent? Who is going to be the winner?

We could just assume, forecast, and prognosticate. However, the winner might be someone just been introduced to the table! It seems China has its moment. Its humongous economic roller coaster has begun to climb the first hill and that too without any apprehensions. This is, probably, the ideal time for China to stamp its authority worldwide as a true financial leader, and boy, America wouldn’t want that. In the straits, where the Taliban surged back to power two decades after US-led forces toppled its regime in what led to the United States’ longest war, the United States wouldn’t want to open up another war field, for sure.

According to the director at the Atlantic Council, Barry Pavel, It’s the return of history, where great powers go at it and things get really bad sometimes. Expect a very tumultuous decade. Most importantly, let’s not undermine the words of Andrew Wood, the former British ambassador to Russia: “China will be watching carefully,” to see which move the United States makes. Russian success in invasion without meaningful deterrence would “prove that the U.S. is not a formidable enemy.”

This is for sure that imperialism isn’t going to fade away. However, what consequences we might counter when regional powers with growing ambitions proceed opportunistically to expand their territorial control and influence in the modern era is a point to ponder. While the whirlwind dialogues between Russia and the rest are dying out in the face of stubborn Moscow; America’s reputation, without any doubt, is at stake. In the pandemonium, the decision made by Washington shall have serious implications for not only America’s reputation but also a test for Biden’s administration.

The writer is based in Islamabad. He can be reached at mbilal.isbpk@gmail.com, FB/mbilal.16