Daily Times

Is the obstacle in the view a temporary roadblock or is the country fast approaching a cul-de-sac with no way forward? The elections are around the corner, but they do not work for certain quarters. Moreover, the supreme facilitators do not seem to be in a mood to entertain another doctrine of necessity. The prodigal son (or, rather, father(?)) of the political party surviving on the Sindh card having wasted all the political credit his late benefactors had left on the cards wants the current set up to prolong, for no set up in future — elections or no elections — seems to have any space for him. The attempts at bringing the pious lot by the power practitioners having failed miserably, first in the shape of the ‘tsunami’ and then the ‘Sheikh’, the proverbial wise man of Persian poetry is counting the remaining arrows in his quiver. The elections culminating in the victory of the ‘Mian of matwalas’, a foregone conclusion if elections happen at all, do not suit the archer. Same being the situation with the masters that matter globally. The Mian, and therefore the elections, do not work for the Americans either. Engineering the elections will be tough for the angels this time. They did this with impunity in the past but not this time, especially in the presence of a mindful media, not so lenient law lords, and a fair Fakhruddin Ibrahim. So where are we headed?

Let me elaborate what I mean. The traditional trichotomy is in tatters — each head of the Cerberus guarding the gates to Islamabad — in our case not allowing any soul to cross the Styx to enter the underworld of Islamabad without his will — being ready this time to do away with the other two. The unholy nexus between the church, the bench and the men in the trenches looks like a thing of ancient mythology. The politicians having matured, for a change, and surprisingly, do not seem willing to dance to the tunes of the master composer. Hence, the slow, but noticeable recession of the tsunami, the shrinking of a gigantic Sheikh to the size of his own shoes, and the failure of the fraternity of fraudsters of General ‘Flower’ to cobble together another IJI. However, despite all the antagonism against elections, the international conditions do not permit another long night of military generals and the polls seem inevitable. At least for now. So what can happen if the elections are held?

Supposing elections are held tomorrow, who can win? My guess is the Mian of matwalas will win hands down, his younger brother’s antics notwithstanding. Having stayed clear of dirty politics and refusing to play the pawn in the hands of the powers-that-be, the Mian has proved himself to be a mature politician. Besides, he seems to enjoy the confidence of the leadership from the smaller provinces as well as a large population of the country, especially in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. He might also be able to muster a couple of seats from Sindh if he chooses his candidates wisely. All indications are that if free and fair elections are held, his party will win.

However, he seems to be out of favour with at least two out of the three ‘A’s that matter in the land of the pure. Having demonstrated his independence in the past and his constant targeting of the army has seen him fall out of favour. Despite the midnight visits to the ‘holy’ quarters by the Chaudhry of ‘Chakri’ and the younger brother, the ‘A’ that counts in Pakistan does not seem to be pleased with him. The other ‘A’ that matters internationally does not seem to be pleased with him either because, one, and again, he is too independent; and two: he is a right leaning megalomaniac with one track mind entertaining aspirations to become the ‘Commander of the Faithful’ one day, who, given an opportunity, will not waste a moment in joining his armies with the ‘Commander of the Faithful’ on the other side of the Durand Line. Financially too, he is not very clean. Therefore, barring an intervention from the third, the Almighty A, he seems to be a persona non grata in the corridors of power.

The second likely candidate, Mr Z and company, my hunch is that he is slightly more preferred by the Pakistani A disapproving of the Mian. Though things might have been different had Mr P been still around. It is his desire for power and money that made him stab his powerbase Sindh in the back time and again. It was what alienated him from his strongest constituency — Liyari and its Baloch. The Baloch of Liyari, ever willing to sacrifice their lives for his family and the party, bade farewell to his party forever the day they had to face a brutal police operation in which lives were lost. For the last four and a half years that this party has been in power, Sindh has seen nothing but loot, plunder and exploitation. The party may still win a majority of seats in the province but not enough to claim the throne in Islamabad. And it is due to this realisation that the party has started the Seraiki province movement to woo the Seraiki vote. With a few seats in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and still fewer in Balochistan, if free and fair elections are held, this party seems to be an unlikely candidate for power. Also Mr Z’s overtures of affinity to Iran and ‘shady’ business with China make him an out of favour candidate for the international A. The Saudis, who matter a lot in Pakistani power politics, do not like him either. Therefore he stands rejected.

Who is left now? Our dear Mr Tsunami. After the departure of Mr P from the equation, the tsunami seems to be on a constant retreat. He may win a few seats from Punjab, including some from the Seraiki areas, thanks to Javed Hashmi, Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Jehangir Tareen et al, as well as a few from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but that is about it. I do not see him in Sindh. Whatever little inroads he had been able to make in Sindh, he destroyed them the day he made a deal with the MQM for his Karachi rally. And he does not exist in Balochistan. Had Mr P been still around, Mr Tsunami would have been a significant player. Not now. Right now, he does not seem to be a force to reckon with as far as the elections are concerned.

There is no need to bother ourselves with small religious and nationalist groups. They do not count. And Mush? Mush who?

Now consider this: if the elections are held, the Mian will win, which the military does not want to happen. An alternative is martial law. But the judiciary, an awakened public, and international conditions will not permit that. A revolution is highly unlikely. A miserable attempt at that recently fizzled out in the D-Chowk of Islamabad. Another IJI is not coming together despite great efforts. So, where is the way forward?

Now do you see the roadblock?

The writer is an independent political commentator