Daily Times

The upcoming general elections of Pakistan may be scheduled in the first week of May 2013. Our 13th National Assembly is going to complete its five-year constitutional tenure on March 16, 2013, and according to the constitutional mandate, elections for the next parliament must be held within 60 days after the dissolution of parliament. It is a big milestone in the democratic history of Pakistan that any National Assembly has completed its specified democratic period of five years.

It is anticipated that the election arrangements and electoral campaigns/ rallies by major political parties will kick off soon after the formal announcement of the election schedule. According to the Allocation of Symbols Order (2002), those parties who have met the conditions of intra-party elections and declaration of party assets have been allotted election symbols. Interestingly, this year, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has fallen short of election symbols with the total 172 approved list of election symbols while the number of registered political parties stands at 227. Most probably, the PPP will get the arrow, its previous party symbol, the PML-N tiger, PML-Q bicycle, MQM kite and ANP lantern. There was an ongoing debate on scales as an election symbol between the PTI and JI, but the ECP gave the verdict in favour of the JI. The PTI election symbol has yet to be finalised.

The ECP is making earnest efforts to ensure the conduct of free and fair elections under Article 218 (3) and 220 of the constitution. All possible pre-poll rigging is being prevented through imposition of a ban on fresh recruitments, employment and allocation of various jobs in departments by the ruling parties. The army presence has been made compulsory for door-to-door verification of voters and at polling stations. Under Article 62 and 63 of the constitution, qualified and disqualified candidates are being scrutinised and dual nationals have been declared ineligible to contest the elections. The 4.3 million overseas Pakistanis’ right to vote has been rendered meaningless in the context of lack of suitable voting mechanisms and 3.7 million voters without proper verification have been deleted from the voters’ list.

The ECP seems very vigilant this year. The Chief Election Commissioner Fakhruddin G.Ebrahim has solicited necessary support from parliament and the political parties; however, controversies exist over the other members of the commission. Some elements including Dr Tahirul Qadri are trying to undermine the credibility and competence of the ECP in public speeches and on the media. Ostensibly, the objective of these critics points towards some hidden agenda of creating an ordinate delay in holding of the elections. The government has allocated Rs 5.099 million to the ECP for making the necessary arrangements for the upcoming elections. The ECP has taken up reforms similar to those in India, which include the commission’s authority over the entire government machinery and the right to make transfers of high-ranking governmental officials like IGs, secretaries and chief secretaries, once the election schedule is announced. The nomination fee for a NA candidate has been increased from Rs 4,000 to Rs 50,000, and for PA candidates from Rs 2,000 to Rs 25,000. For corrupt and illegal practices, imprisonment of three years with Rs 100,000 fine instead of the existing Rs 5,000, and a penalty of Rs 100,000 for violation of the electoral code of conduct for the candidates have also been announced.

Besides these election preparations and strict arrangements, curiosity about the election results and the voting behaviour of the people has led to several queries and predictions. To surmise the results of the 2013 elections so early is not an easy task as the party positions and their popularity has been constantly fluctuating with respect to the changing domestic and international political environment. Starting from the PML-N, the party has regained its support in Kharipur and Abbottobad, as a number of electable politicians have joined the PML-N; the recent by-elections in Punjab have shown results in favour of the PML-N, despite facing the combined opposition of the PML-Q and PPP in some constituencies. According to the recent Party Popularity Survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI), the PML-N’s popularity has increased to 32 percent from 28 percent, as compared to the PTI whose popularity has decreased from 24 percent to 18 percent in public surveys held in July, August and then in November respectively.

Another important party, the PML-Q is playing its political cards very tactfully. Being super flexible and expert in conducting negotiations and political deals, it is expected to form a coalition with any new government. In Sindh, the MQM has failed to emerge as a national party and will likely stick to its strength in Karachi with popular support of 16 percent. Its popularity has increased five percent from the previous IRI survey. Even though the PPP has been a challenge for the MQM, the PPP’s overall popularity has decreased in Sindh from 39 percent to 32 percent, as per calculations in the previous IRI survey. The MQM will likely continue with its old stance and join a coalition to be in the government. Similarly, the JUI-F and ANP have to rely on other political parties’ support to form their governments in Balochistan or Khyber Pakhtunhawa (KP).

The PTI, despite joining of many renowned politicians, has managed to get just 32 percent support in KP and has lost support in Balochistan to nine percent. The PTI lacks strong candidates in major constituencies all across the country. It has no rural and just urban or youth support.

It has been reported that out of the approximately 90 million registered voters, 40 million are said to be young, yet politics demands more than this youth factor to bring transformation and revolution. Let’s contemplate our ruling party, the PPP, which regardless of five years of misgovernance and failure to deliver to the public, holds a rock solid vote bank in Sindh, and to some extent, in other provinces as well. Since the PML vote bank is split between N and Q, the PPP gets the benefit and wins in various areas, but the recent by-elections in Punjab have changed the entire political picture. The sympathetic voting the PPP was able to get in the context of Benazir Bhutto’s murder in the 2008 elections will not help it much this time. However, its popularity has remained stable at 14 percent in the IRI survey.

This is the overall political scenario, in which the political positions of all the major political parties seem uncertain at present. It is quite difficult to make any concrete prediction before the elections or to predict the exact outcome. However, there is little hope that the political scenario will undergo a major transformation after the elections. Whether it is the PTI, PPP or PML-N, the public demands an immediate remedy to the growing inflation, unemployment, energy crisis, power cuts, gas load shedding and terrorist threat that have shaken the entire infrastructure of the country. It is not the question of a party or a party leader; in fact, it is a question of the welfare of the citizens and their right to vote for the one who brings prosperity and addresses their major concerns and basic needs.

The writer works for IPRI