President Obama and the Middle East

Author: Atif Shamim Syed

Palestinian and Israeli leaders have repeatedly blamed the Obama administration for its lack of interest in the peace process. Some were even speculating that the administration wants to wash its hands of this perpetual problem in the Middle East. However, all these assumptions were laid to rest with the recent announcement from the White House that the US president plans to visit the region next month. It will be Mr Obama’s first trip since his re-election as the president of the United States.

The announcement of this visit came at a very crucial time for the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who is facing a great political challenge at home. The news of Mr Obama’s visit was broken in the midst of Mr Netanyahu’s negotiations to form a coalition government in which he finds himself in a fairly weak position owing to his poor performance in the recent elections. For the past two years, Mr Netanyahu successfully ducked the question of the two-state solution while a seemingly indifferent Obama took care of his re-election campaign. Now that the latter has settled himself firmly in the White House, he is finally in a position to tackle the Palestinian issue, which he dared not touch during the election season. Americans are clearly sending a message to the incumbent prime minister as well as the rest of the political stakeholders in Israel that they are back in business.

There were rumours that in the wake of a US policy shift, the Americans would let the Europeans, preferably Britain and France, handle Middle Eastern affairs while they took the back seat. However, after being sworn in as president, Mr Obama made it clear that the Palestinian question is one of his administration’s top priorities. Mr Obama seems to be taking this issue seriously possibly due to the reason that this is his last tenure and he need not worry about the next elections. This will enable him to focus his energies on crafting a set of conditions that will help attain lasting peace in the region.

As part of the renewed US efforts, it was also announced that Mr John Kerry, the US Secretary of State, would go to the region ahead of the presidential visit and meet all the leaders. Mr Kerry, having headed the Senate foreign relations committee, is well aware of the mechanics of the conflict, and is familiar with all the key players too.

It should be stressed once more that the timing of this announcement is very important. The US is deliberately making it known to all the parties involved in the coalition talks that the Palestinian issue can no more be avoided. Any government that comes into existence in Israel as a result of these negotiations is going to have to deal with this issue.

Mr Obama tried to bring peace to the region during his first term but his efforts could not come to fruition due to the stubbornness of both the Israelis and the Arabs. This time, the White House has deliberately refrained from raising false hopes by stating that the visit will not specifically focus on the peace process. However, it was also noted by the press secretary that the issue will, no doubt, come up in the meetings between the president and the Israeli and Palestinian leaders.

The dynamics of the region have changed exponentially in the past two years. Moreover, the political scene in the US as well as Israel has shifted. Mr Obama and Mr Netanyahu evidently do not get along well with each other. Their personal chemistry was further impaired by the latter’s open support for Mr Obama’s rival Mitt Romney during the November elections. Mr Obama won the elections and is now at the height of his power, while Mr Netanyahu failed to secure a reasonable number of seats in the Knesset, and is now trying to form a coalition government. He has effectively lost the leverage that he enjoyed over the US president before the elections. US optimism is further enhanced by the unexpected success of the Yesh Atid Party, which apparently has a centrist tendency. All these factors coupled with the current mayhem in the Middle East and Iran’s defiant stance regarding its nuclear programme may have prompted the US administration to initiate a new peace drive.

Mr Obama’s focus on the Middle East and his intention to act quickly are becoming evident. Technically, he has not yet earned the Nobel Peace Prize that was awarded to him in 2009. He specifically mentioned “peace and security for Palestinians and Israelis” in his acceptance speech while admitting that the Nobel Peace Prize is sometimes awarded as a recognition of, and providing credibility and impetus to an initiated — but as yet unachieved — goal. The scheduled visit to the Middle East is perhaps Mr Obama’s final attempt to achieve that goal, and thus define his lasting legacy.

The writer is an investment banker and a freelance columnist for various publications. He can be reached at syedatifshamim@hotmail.com

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