Daily Times

Though the year 2022 begins with some newly found fervor bordering on ambitions, it brings along certain challenges, especially related to Pakistan’s foreign policy. In this regard, three main challenges can be counted.

The first challenge is that Pakistan is finding it difficult to balance its relations between the Afghan Taliban and the United States (US). Both allege that Pakistan is siding with the other party. Both allege that Pakistan battens on them without returning anything substantial. Both consider that they are the victims of Pakistan’s sophistry. Interestingly, both are on a retribution course.

Afghanistan is inflicted with the tyranny of perennial internecine conflicts. The country is factious to its core bracing volatility. Instability has been a recalcitrant hallmark. Sometimes, it seems that Pakistan has been using Afghanistan’s instability against Afghanistan since the 1970s by extending support to certain groups in the hope that Kabul will not interfere in Pakistan’s internal affairs. Pakistan dislikes when Kabul refuses to acknowledge the Durand Line as the international border. The shoals of Afghanistan are treacherous. Since 1991, all agreements and schemes to introduce harmony into Afghanistan’s body politic have foundered on either ethnicity or sectarianism. The urge to hold on to power is more potent than human lives. Though Pakistan has also fished in Afghanistan’s troubled waters, Pakistan has avoided entering into a conflict with the Afghans, even with those who have recently rooted out the barbed wire meant for fencing the Pak-Afghan border representing the Durand Line established since 12 November 1893.

Since 1991, all agreements and schemes to introduce harmony into Afghanistan’s body politic have foundered on either ethnicity or sectarianism.

On the other hand, the US thinks that the key to peace in Afghanistan has been mislaid somewhere in Pakistan. On 14 December 2021, in a statement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, US’ ambassador-designate to Pakistan, Donald Blome said, “Mission Pakistan also plays an important role in encouraging an inclusive Afghan government that respects and promotes the human rights of all individuals, including women and girls and members of minority groups, and ensuring that Afghanistan never again becomes a haven for international terrorism.” Implied in the statement, the allegation is obvious: Pakistan is opposed to permitting the formation of an inclusive Afghan government in Kabul. Currently, Pakistan has been sandwiched between the Afghan Taliban and the US government.

The second challenge is that Pakistan is finding it difficult to balance its politico-economic relations between China and the US. Both consider that Pakistan is prevaricating on its undertakings. Both view Pakistan as an ingrate. Both weigh that their clout over Pakistan is thinning. Both doubt Pakistan’s intent. Both are reserved on bailing Pakistan out financially.

Pakistan has been an old ally of the US but Pakistan is also an old friend of China, which supported Pakistan in the Security Council several times besides helping Pakistan develop its nuclear energy. Both countries demand that Pakistan stay the course along with them. Tottering under all internal hiccups and external exigencies, Pakistan has been shifting its focus from geo-politics to geo-economics. Internal hiccups because the shift has been an agonizing process politically. From 2009 to 2018, civilian governments faced resistance and bore condemnation on this account. External exigencies because the European Union (EU) has been asking Pakistan to do regional trade to seek experience for doing international trade, as the EU cannot permit Pakistan for a long time to export its product on the quota facility and keep on dumping products at the cost of local industries.

Interestingly, whereas China sees the China Pakistan Economic Corridor as a framework for regional connectivity which would benefit both the countries financially, the US ambassador-designate to Pakistan, Donald Blome said, “Pakistan is pursuing expanded economic linkages with the United States as part of what it calls ‘geo-economics’.” Over the years, both China and the US have invested in Pakistan politically and financially, and now both incite partiality. Pakistan can neither refuse China nor can Pakistan disregard the US. Similarly, Pakistan cannot disrespect Saudi Arabia which wants Pakistan to side with the US.

The third challenge is that Pakistan is finding it difficult to strike a balance between its stance on geo-economics and soaring relations with India. The concept of geo-economics, which was fraught with risks before 2018, demands that Pakistan improve its trade ties with India. Pakistan feels constrained because of its stance that without the resolution of the Kashmir dispute, Pakistan cannot normalize its trade relations with India. For the past three years, Pakistan has been found muted on the Kashmir dispute, as Pakistan finds itself cornered in the world. Pakistan cannot compel India to restore the pre-August 2018 autonomous status of the Indian-occupied Kashmir. It means that Pakistan’s geo-economics would be lopsided by factoring out India from its sphere of trade.

As if this were enough! Pakistan is beset with two challenges internal to its affairs. The first is economic instability and the second is political uncertainty. Inexperience coupled with gaffes has delivered Pakistan economic instability. Interestingly, the same reason has been instigating political uncertainty. Similarly, Pakistan is tormented with two challenges external to its affairs. The first is how to deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the second is how to do away with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). The IMF has been demanding from Pakistan to scale up income to contend with the country’s expenditures. The IMF implies that Pakistan needs to cut down its expenditures to meet its income. The FATF is unforgiving of the human and material loss that the Mumbai attacks of 2008 inflicted on the land of India. Both IMF and FATF have been impinging upon Pakistan’s sovereignty. The world is unkind and the time is unpleasant.

Altogether, these seven main challenges will keep on wobbling Pakistan in 2022.

The writer can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com