Daily Times

Assuming a prestigious status
in the Shiite circle, Qom offers a tranquil look in the dark nights. This holy city of Iran grabbed the headlines of newspapers and sent shock waves even across the Atlantic Ocean when the underground uranium enrichment facility at the site of Fordow was discovered in 2009. Iran is swiftly furthering its clandestine plans to emerge as one of the nuclear-armed countries. Contrary to their officially stated stance, their suspicious strides towards enriching uranium despite sanctions are stirring tremors in the political and military corridors of the US and Israel. Often characterized as an ultra-religious country with abrasive dogmatism, a nuclear-empowered Iran will have a greater impact upon the dynamics of the political order in the world.

The declassified reports of IAEA recently unveiled the uncanny story (confirmed by Ayotollah Khamenei later on) that Iran secretively transferred 1,000 centrifuges to the underground site of Fordow. Built deep in the bowels of a mountain, the site is reported to have the capacity of storing 3,000 centrifuges. It appears that this facility is immune to any surgical strike aimed with sheer precision. Why did Iran have to pour in billions of dollars merely to fortify an energy reactor (Iran claims it is for energy purposes)? The denial of Iran of enriching uranium for nuclear weapons does not stand parallel with its ground developments.

The reports further read that Iran has enriched Uranium to 19.75 percent of U-235 which can quickly be converted to highly enriched Uranium (HEU). Remember, nuclear- powered weapons demand 85 percent or more of U-235 but getting there from this point relatively consumes less time. The dangerous part of the enrichment is the gas centrifuges Iran can employ to enrich its stockpile of 3.5 percent low-enriched Uranium (LEU) to 19.75 percent. Iran is near to being able to make a warhead small and light enough to fit on a ballistic missile.

The emergence of Iran as a nuclear power will have potentially disruptive consequences upon the geopolitics of the world. Saudi Arabia has already aired its grievances and has indicated its intent to acquire a nuclear deterrent in thinly shrouded language. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been locking horns on the political landscape for years. As a result, the Saudi regime deems the nuclear development of Iran as an ominous sign for its survival.

Similarly, some other countries which are awash with economic resources and have the military might to nuclearize their weapons will show intent under the pretext of an existential threat. North Korea is testing its muscles to take on a nuclear flight against all ‘odds’. A nuclear Iran will set a precedent and a justification for the historically aggressive nations to surreptitiously build nuclear weaponry. A bellicose climate will gradually develop that will potentially endanger global peace at large.

Iran is also implicated in sponsoring the militant outfits which ‘claim’ to fight a holy war against Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon has been overtly bankrolled by Iran to combat the sophisticated weaponry equipped military of Israel. Sitting firmly on the back of Iran and tepidly backed up by the Syrian regime over the years, Hezbollah has been effectively engaged in innumerable battles with Israel with the collaboration of Hamas. Gaining a toehold in the shrinking vote bank of Al Fatah of Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas rose to new heights of popularity during a throat-cutting seven day war against the forces of Israel recently in 2012. Iran, of late, has scaled down its support owing to the dispute over the Syrian regime. Yet Iran has lent military, financial and diplomatic assistance to the emerging force of Hamas. Most of the rockets fired into Israel in the recent seven day war were manufactured in Iran. Considering the Iranian backing of these groups, fears loom high on the horizon regarding the possibility of handing over new weapons to such outfits once Iran ‘feels’ either insecure because of any development in Israel or the reins of power in Tehran come under the command of a religiously-charged clergyman. There is a high possibility of militant groups getting equipped with nuclear weapons through the channels of Iran after it attains nuclear weapons.

Does bombing Iran entail any chances of a significant success in the process of neutralization of nukes? Absolutely not. According to The Economist, the nuclear programme of Iran has advanced into a phase where only Iran itself can withdraw from its march towards nuclearization. A surgical strike might push the accomplishment of its programme some years back, but cannot deter it from acquiring nuclear weapons. Rather, in retaliation for the strikes, anti-US and anti-Israeli sentiment in the Muslim world will further get entrenched.

The only viable solution to this threateningly developing scenario is to engage the Iranian regime in reconciliatory talks. Barack Obama is the central figure, as suggested by The Economist, who can bring this blood-curdling tension to a reasonable conclusion. The US should dish out a comprehensive economic package to help knit the ruptured economy of Iran. The incumbent regime of Iran has refused the proposal of a financial package, which was understandable considering the already imposed sanctions and the aggression espoused by Israel. Had the US brought both the parties on a single table, proposed a holistic economic package with the backing of the EU, Iran would have no option but to pander to it.

The currency of Iran has recently devalued by 80 percent. The interest rate was raised to 6 percent to mitigate the depreciation. The foreign reserves have dried up. Inflation has hit new heights. Even the political waters are disturbed by the imposition of sanctions. Differences among political figures are widening. In early February 2013, Mehmoud Ahmedinijad sought to incriminate the Larijanis (a powerful family) through playing a videotape. Accusations against each other resonate on the floor of parliament. The country is teetering on the edge of a sword and is veering towards the blind alley of anarchy.

Therefore Iran might betray its proclivity towards the acceptance of a compact economic package on the heels of a collapsing government and an impending threat from Israel. An economic injection with the mutual consent of the EU and US will resuscitate the hardly breathing economy of Iran. Trade avenues with guaranteed incentives should be an integral part of the economic proposal. One of the tempting initiatives into which Iran can be lured is its greater role in the rebuilding of Afghanistan along with Pakistan. Of late, China and Russia have also held back their unconditional endorsement of Iran, which is a foretaste of how much the Iranian state will be isolated if it continues with its nuclear adventure.

With time ticking by and the tension between Iran and other forces led by Israel getting intense, one can expect an emerging spectacle not less deadly than the two world wars.

The writer is a freelance writer and can be reached at rehanbinnazeem@gmail.com