Daily Times

The dispute over Indus Water Treaty (IWT) has been lingering for over five decades and if this continues, Pakistan will be in the grip of serious water scarcity. Water supplies are increasingly under stress in large parts of Pakistan. The consequences are harrowing: drought and famine, poverty, spread of waterborne diseases, forced migration and even open conflict, making existence and survival of people highly precarious.

Pakistan’s population, which is constantly on the rise and is expected to be 335 million in the year 2050 as mentioned in the United Nation’s ‘medium’ scenario, is adding more pressures to the already water-stressed country. The fact that farmers are now depending on ground water that is being depleted by over-pumping and Himalayan glaciers and the main lifeline of rivers may melt by 2050 due to global warming is indeed a wake-up call for the entire nation. The case does not rest here; a study commissioned by Woodrow Wilson Centre in Washington depicts a bleak scenario by predicting that Pakistan will become a water-scarce country by 2035, and in worst case, it may run out of this resource much earlier, as in 2020.

Pakistan, an agrarian country, does not only rely on water for intensive agricultural schemes but its economy also hinges on the availability and judicious use of water. Notwithstanding, the crucial role that water play in Pakistan, the country is failing miserably in conserving it and instead is hobbled by intractable politics over the issue of dams.

It is pertinent for Pakistan to move beyond trivial disagreements over water-related issues and to address the water shortage dilemma seriously. Pakistan needs to make concrete efforts to highlight the significance of water issue at various international fora. It should discuss issues such as climate change, melting of Himalayan glaciers, water shed management, and ground water at international forums, as these issues have not been addressed in the Indus Water Treaty. Pakistan can take advantage of the United Nations resolution 65/154, which has declared the years 2013 as the International Year of Water with major events and conferences on water cooperation being held in New York, The Hague and Stockholm in the coming months. It is a failure on the part of the state for not communicating such developments on water to the people. It is unfortunate, but the reality is quite striking; a conversation with a few water experts and government officials revealed that not many in Pakistan are aware of the United Nations resolution on water cooperation, and what is even more surprising is it is still unclear who represented Pakistan and endorsed this resolution on water cooperation. Wake up, Pakistan, we are running out of time; if we want to ensure water cooperation in Indus Basin, we must get our act together.

Some argue that to address the water issues as mentioned, Pakistan and India must consider having a second treaty, but in reality, the idea of having the Indus Water Treaty-II with India would be detrimental for Pakistan. One of the exacting consequences of this will be India asking for more water from the western rivers. Besides, the chances of renegotiating the treaty are small; hence, the only way out for Pakistan is to find ways to ensure that India does not violate the treaty and in future implement the IWT in its true letter and spirit.

Pakistan must gear up to address water challenges that it may have to confront in the near future; it needs to train people who are well versed in international water law. The country needs to produce more water experts and water diplomats so that they are well equipped to raise issues pertaining to water at the national as well as the international fora.

The need of the hour is to strengthen Pakistan’s Chapter of Indus Water Commission by building capacity in water issue, water conflict resolution, and technical issues so that when these people represent Pakistan at various fora they are in a position to make convincing arguments based on facts and figures.

Netherlands is one of the advanced countries of Europe that has developed its niche on water diplomacy; it possesses specific knowledge that is in demand, has made long-term investments in water arena and has developed a broad network in the field of water management. Pakistan must look in to the possibility of addressing issues pertaining to the Indus Basin by establishing a ‘Tripartite Water Forum’ including both the basin and the Netherlands. One of the benefits of this tripartite water forum will be to resolve water issue without spawning politics between the two rival states i.e. India and Pakistan.

Since the dispute over Indus Waters Treaty mostly hinges upon the issue of dams and most conflicts arise due to clashes over the construction of dams, therefore, measures need to be undertaken to put an end to this practice. Conflicts of such nature can be resolved by initiating cooperative programmes for optimum utilisation of river system. Article seven of the Indus Water Treaty discusses “Future cooperation” and point to the “common interest in the optimum development of the rivers” and urges both India and Pakistan to cooperate fully when carrying out engineering works on the rivers.

Furthermore, to mitigate discrepancies, Pakistan and India must explore new areas of cooperation within and outside the scope of the treaty. They can jointly commission studies that entail and discusses in detail issues arising as a result of the reduced water flows.

It is time to act more prudently, let us forget our old animosities and come to terms to the fact that water is important for both the nations. A right attitude is required to deal with such a sensitive matter and it is time to inculcate that attitude in ourselves.

The writer is a lawyer and a researcher in a think-tank based in Lahore and holds a law degree from the University of London