Daily Times

In a democracy, the people exercise their entitlement to govern themselves through the agency of their chosen representatives whom they name in periodic elections. Individuals are ambitious and dynamic enough to covet ruling authority and power, and compete with one another for the people’s favour. They appear before voters, introduce themselves, say what they stand for and what their image of a good society is, promise to heed their needs and aspirations and deliver to them the good things of life. In many instances, their audiences know them, their antecedents and their status in society. There are cases in which the aspirant for elective office is running on his own steam, but more often, he belongs to a political party and contests the election as its nominee. To this extent, the election becomes a contest between political parties and their managers or, if you will, their leaders. Combinations and alliances may be made to oppose counter-alliances.

The existing parliament will reach the end of its five-year term on March 15 and new elections will be held within 90 days of its dissolution. The more general expectation is that they will be held somewhere in the first quarter of May. More than 100 groups have registered with the Election Commission of Pakistan as political parties entitled to participate in the coming election. Most of them are wholly obscure and the great majority of people have never even heard of them. About ten of them are known entities and will be active participants in the election. A few of them maintain a presence in all parts f the country while some of them, being mainly ethnic or linguistic, have influence largely in certain specific areas. Such for instance are the MQM, ANP, PML-F, and the Baloch nationalists. The PPP and PML-N are notable as nationwide parties whereas the MQM and ANP are limited for the most part to the Urdu-speaking towns in Sindh and the Pashtuns in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa respectively. The JUI and JI maintain visibility throughout the country but their electoral support is limited to specific areas or religious groups.

The PML-N is emerging as one of the more potent contestants in the next election. Punjab is its stronghold, which sends 148 members on the general seats to the National Assembly. The more optimistic of its managers expect to win as many as 100 of these seats. This is probably a case of exaggerated self-confidence but we will leave it at that for the moment. Mian Nawaz Sharif has been addressing public meetings in Sindh to establish his party’s presence in that province. Reports have it that he has been able to muster the support of numerous Sindhi influential politicians who do not approve of the PPP. One of the most important Sindhi notables, Mumtaz Bhutto, has formally joined the PML-N. His support to Sharif after the elections would add significantly to the latter’s status in the National Assembly and his proclaimed design to be this country’s next prime minister.

These calculations on Sharif’s part do not seem to take account of the challenge that Imran Khan and his party will pose to him in Punjab. Khan is not out recruiting allies and coalition partners. This has caused the impression in certain quarters that he is standing alone. Another version of his posture contends that his slow movement is a matter of timing. He wants to defer active campaigning to a time closer to the election. He has called a general meeting of his party workers and supporters at Minar-e-Pakistan on March 23. It is believed that he will launch his full-scale campaign at that time. This strategy will remove the necessity of his broadcasting his message over and over again to the fatigue and boredom of his listeners. Apparently, that is the way he wants it. He says that the conduct of traditional politicians has brought the country to the brink of ruin, and that he must intervene to stop them. If the election results do not enable him to reach high office, he will occupy the opposition benches and safeguard the public good from that position. He is expected to win over many of the young people in the cities and some of the ‘electables’ in rural areas. His party will thus put together a substantial presence in the next National Assembly.

The PPP is not as well situated in Punjab as its main rivals but it is still likely to grab most of the 45 or so NA seats in southern Punjab. It may win close to 10 seats elsewhere in the province, a majority of them in Sindh, and may thus emerge as the third largest group in the parliament.

The minor parties will not be able to enhance their electoral fortunes significantly. The MQM will retain its 25 or so seats in its Urdu speaking constituencies. The ANP’s Pashtun vote bank will remain intact.

Maulana Fazlur Rehman is trying to take advantage of an unexpected development. A spokesman of the Taliban has sent word that his party is willing to negotiate peace with the present regime if the Maulana, Sharif, and the JI will guarantee the good faith and seriousness of these talks. Most of the politicians have taken the position that talks with the Taliban should be held. Maulana Fazlur Rehman has seized the management of this venture. It remains to be seen how it will go and what advantages will ensue to him as a result.

It used to be the MQM’s custom to lend its support to the government of the day and become a partner in the ruling coalition. It has recently decided to fabricate a distinct and separate presence of its own in the National Assembly. We will have to wait and see how this strategy will work out.

The writer is professor emeritus at the University of Massachusetts and can be reached at anwarsyed@cox.net