Daily Times

The ceasefire in Syria that went into effect on February 27, 2016 may just be another passing event in the strife-torn lives of the people in the Middle East. The ceasefire arranged with the efforts of Russia and the US has made it possible to distribute food and medicines among the distressed people locked in a long conflict. Syria is in a state of civil war for the last five years; the spontaneous protests of the Syrian Arab Spring in 2011 became sponsored, went violent, astray and sour. Revised estimates of human casualties of this civil war are 500,000 Syrian individuals having lost their lives, up from the previously estimated 250,000 people dead. Some 10 million Syrians are now waiting for humanitarian aid, 6.6 million people are internally displaced persons, and 4.4 million went through the trauma of becoming refugees.

Majority of Syrians have taken refuge in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Europe. The terror attacks in Brussels have their links traced to Syria. Many of the Syrian towns are in ruins, like Aleppo, which was a main commercial city of Syria; the loss might be irreversible. Over time, Aleppo had remained a city of commerce, cultural diversity and tolerance, a trade route to the Mediterranean. In spite of the ceasefire the difficulties of the regimes in Middle East are far from over; difficult, hostile days might be ahead, for which many of the regimes are to be blamed for ignoring human rights and economic development of their populations. The situation in the Middle East is spreading to Europe and Afghanistan, where the militants get support and pose a security threat to many a region, including us in Pakistan.

The ceasefire between the myriad proxy rebel groups and Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad seems to be fragile, as there is no indication of an agreed-upon political plan. Prolonged civil strife in Iraq, Syria and Yemen has over these years turned into an irreversible deteriorating situation. The failing peace process is made more serious due to falling oil prices, rising unemployment and refuges problems in Jordan, Turkey and Lebanon. The situation assumes uncertainty as the Islamic State (IS) group and al-Nusra front cannot be made part of the ceasefire arrangement.

Beginning June 2014 IS managed to occupy large territories in Iraq and Syria. Though some important towns like Kobani, Rammadi and now Palmyra have since been liberated, IS still holds Mosul, the second largest city of Iraq, and Fallujah, which is just 65 kilometres from Baghdad. Unfortunately, the circumstances that led to the rise of the IS, and occupation of large territories in Iraq in 2014 still persists. These circumstances emanated from poor governance, corruption, economically alienated populations and repressive regimes. Protests against corruption and poor governance have again started taking place, both in Iraq and Syria. A rally in Baghdad on March 11, against corruption and poor governance in Iraq, was attended by 200,000 people; the rally was organised by Moqtada al Sadr. This demonstration was certainly reflective of a will to agitate against corruption, an indicator of growing unrest and instability. There have been protests in some Syrian cities again, for the removal of President Bashar. The weak and corrupt governments in the region might not be able to shore up peace for a long time.

After the ceasefire the IS has tried to demonstrate its capacity to carry out terror attacks. In Iraq two days after the ceasefire on February 29, the IS carried bomb attacks in a market in the Sadr City district of Baghdad, 73 people lost their lives. The next day on March 1, the IS carried out another attack on an Iraqi army camp in Hadita, killing 40 soldiers including a brigadier-general. A recent car bomb terror attack in Ankara resulted in the loss of life of 34 people. The IS still retains a capacity to commit terror activity; this is in spite of many military setbacks, and it manages to maintain 20,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria. After the ceasefire, the al-Nusra front has been able to secure a surrender of the members of the Free Syrian Army in northwestern Syria. Large quantities of US arms including anti-tank missiles have been taken away by the al-Nusra militants.

The surprise announcement by Russia of departure of its forces from Syria might prove a setback to the Syrian forces. The Syrian army reinforced by Russia is once again a credible fighting force, and has been able to liberate many areas from the IS. The Syrian army has been able to contain the IS in spite of many heavy odds, among them is inadequate logistic support, war weariness and being too thinly spread. A major drawback for the Syrian army is a lack of trust from the Syrian people because of human right issues and corruption spread over decades. The Iraqi army has still not recovered from the June 2014 defeat by the IS, and the subsequent surrender of its men and surrender of large quantities of US supplied arms and ammunition and expensive military vehicles, costing billions of dollars. Hence Iraq and Syria do not have a strong indigenous fighting force. On his just concluded visit to Saudi Arabia President Barack Obama stressed upon the Gulf Cooperation Council more participation to fight
the IS.

This lack of a fighting force leads to growing influence of the IS and al-Qaeda in the Middle East and North Africa. Even the well-equipped Egyptian army feels the pressure of the IS. In March a security check post in the Arish city in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula was attacked by Sinai Willayet of the IS; 13 policemen lost their lives. Even the ambulances evacuating the injured security personnel were fired upon. The civil war in Yemen has given the IS and al-Qaeda an opportunity to gain influence and acquire the capability to carry out terror attacks and a ground for recruitment. Aden, the second largest city of Yemen and present day capital of the government, has a presence of the IS and al-Qaeda organisations. In Libya, the influence of the IS continues; it carried out an attack on March 7 in Gardane, the Libyan border town with Tunisia, and 53 people lost their lives in this attack. The growing instability in the Middle East is casting long shadows in regions globally.

The continuing armed conflict in Syria and Iraq has created such circumstances in many countries in the Middle East and North Africa that it may not be possible to secure peace under the prevailing conditions. There must be a realisation of the spillover effect of instability in Middle East in countries across the globe into Asia and Europe. The dystopia is further drawing closer in some countries in the Middle East due to falling oil prices, oversized corrupt bureaucracies and budgetary deficits, along with the rising cost of supporting seemingly endless proxy wars. In the fight against terror the major stakeholders in the Middle East do not have a coordinated strategy, and, in some cases, regimes lack a will. The present dilemma of the Middle East is that many crucial regimes are fast losing an initiative for political and economic reforms.

The writer is a former member of the police service of Pakistan, and can be reached at humayunshafi@gmail.com