Daily Times

May, 28, 1998 was a historic day when Pakistan achieved Nuclear Deterrence by detonating five underground nuclear devices at the site of Chagai-I, as a response to its traditional adversary India’s nuclear tests conducted on May, 11 and 13, 1998, respectively. Despite the undesirable and desirable consequences it brought for Pakistan, be those in the form of international economic sanctions or on the contrary subsequent development of various precise, improved and successful delivery systems — in order to deter immediate and inter-continental conventional military threats to the country — and mechanisms laid out over the years for the consolidation, the security and protection of Pakistan’s nuclear assets is by (now fully automated) Strategic Command and Control Support System (SCCSS).

What goes without saying is the unequivocal realisation of not consolidating the economic progress the country made thereafter in the past decade. The judicial-political crisis, which resulted after the imposition of emergency in November 2007, was carried on by the successive-present government until March 2009 (however, the stalemate between the judiciary and government continues to date). Along with the concomitant, yet a multi-faceted energy crisis, which led to the prevalent soaring shortfalls of electric power supply, and the exceeding demands of natural gas from utility customers and commercial sectors, have outdone the present supply of the domestic resource compelling investors to move or withhold their capital, resulting in an economic downturn. Last but not the least the derailing law and order situation across the country be it due to terrorism, targeted sectarian or political killings and a prevailing extortion culture especially in a metropolitan like Karachi, which serves as the vital financial hub of the country, has lately witnessed an unprecedented economic decline.

However, as it is said better late than never; the recent agreement by President Asif Zardari to hand over the control of Gwadar Port from Port of Singapore Authority to China Overseas Ports Holding Company Limited has opened up another window of opportunity for Pakistan in the economic and strategic realm. Although it would be inconsequential to contend that the move would help improve the PPP’s political standing in the upcoming election, what is true are the strategic and economic horizons it unfolds for Pakistan and beyond it in the overall region.

The economic benefits that the port can generate for Pakistan are tremendous. An estimated revenue of $40 billion and the generation of two million jobs can be an impetus for Pakistan as an emerging economy. Such potential shall compel the state to convert Gwadar into a full-fledged urbanised port-city, with the concentration of private sector to invest in infrastructure development such as planned housing and residential schemes, road networks, hospitals, schools, and other commercial sectors, but most importantly, a public-private investment in energy generation.

Combined all together and Gwadar will become a breeding ground for an emerging middle-class in the country. Moreover, a critical fact that demands attention is that Gwadar provides Pakistan the opportunity to plan a city from scratch, which would in return help policy makers to replicate the same model to other parts of the country in terms of planning and development of new metropolises and overall infrastructural development. From way up north to down in South, Gwadar has only but opportunities ripe to be exploited. Gwadar’s own location renders it with a myriad of advantages. The port is located at a distance of 450 kilometres in the west of the port-city Karachi. Unlike Karachi its security is not vulnerable to India, primarily for it being away from India geographically. On the contrary, it will enable Pakistan Navy in nexus, with the Chinese Navy to maneuver the Indian Naval presence as far as the Bay of Aden and prevent its influence to expand near the Gulf of Suez. China’s 80 percent of imports from Iran is oil, while it is the third largest importer f oil to China after Saudi Arabia and Angola respectively. Imports of oil from Saudi Arabia to China are expected to increase by 11 percent in 2013, and while by 2015 China aims to import 61 percent of its crude-oil needs. Given China’s reliance on oil imports from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Sudan and Libya, exclusive of the top three importers, Gwadar renders to become the common gateway for the Chinese SLOCS (Sea Lines of Communication); thus making it an indispensable and an unavoidable option for China. Since, at present majority of the Chinese SLOC pass through the Indian Ocean, Strait of Malacca and South China Sea, under crisis their security can come into vulnerability by states like India, Vietnam, and Philippines and Gwadar under such circumstances eventually becomes a knee jerk reaction, yet a pragmatic and a calculated alternative route to it. Even in the peace time the route is economical for China; trading oil via Gwadar will help China save $20 billion annually.

While Iran remains under international economic sanctions it will be crippled from exploiting its port of Charbahar until the stalemate over its nuclear proliferation is settled, and despite the ambiguity over how long the sanctions might last, Pakistan has a window of opportunity and one ready at disposal to provide instant access to landlocked Central Asian States and the energy-rich Afghanistan to warm waters. Although the latter lacks the means to exploit its natural resources, meanwhile and in the immediate future, the country will continue to survive on international donor aid and assistance. Gwadar thus can serve to meet the import needs of Afghanistan, and provide it with the nearest access to the Indian Ocean.

In January, Pakistan Navy and Royal Saudi Naval Forces (RSNF) held joint exercises in Naseem Al Bahr-X, as a part of its continued effort of joint cooperation in naval and maritime security. The convergence of mutual interest between Pakistan & the RSNF will enable the two navies, with joint-operational preparedness, to counter common conventional and asymmetrical threats in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. The realisation of a nuclear triad by Pakistan will further consolidate its deterrence capability in the naval realm and also enable it to maintain peace and stability in eastern and western waters by flexing its new naval muscle and use it as a negotiation tool where and when required.

The recent AMAN-13 Exercise, the fourth in the series of maritime security exercises since its inception in March 2007, has witnessed a gradual rise in the number of participant states. This time, it attracted naval ships from 13 countries — including the US and China — and observers from 20 other states. As a signatory of the CTF (Combined Task Force)-150, the initiative of AMAN exercises depicts Pakistan’s commitment to maritime security and peace and despite the limited capability at disposal, the share of its responsibility is certainly going to rise given Gwadar going fully operational in the near future. Pakistan Navy for imperative reasons will require building upon its asymmetrical capabilities like the conventional ones, an endeavour that will encompass an increase in special operations, i.e. SSG-N and the number of Fast Attack Crafts (FACs), with night-vision capability and low sound motors to facilitate stealth approach to targets, in order to counter piracy, drug trafficking, human trafficking and terrorism-related activities with coalition forces, especially in the Horn of Africa, an area which has gained notoriety in the sea-waters.

Hence, given the interdependence of the above geostrategic and economic facets peculiar to Gwadar, the realisation, stability and prosperity of this project remains conditioned to the following vision of the Quaid-e-Azam, “Peace within and peace without.”

The writer is certified in Conflict Analysis, Negotiation & Conflict Management from the United States Institute of Peace. He can be reached at usama.nizamani@gmail.com