Daily Times

In my article last week, I looked at the options for the appointment of the interim prime minister and his cabinet. An interim government could have been in place on March 16 or 17 if sharp differences in the opinions of the treasury and opposition had not taken place. But a consensus was not to be! While this article is being written all constitutional options are being exhausted and it is possible that by the time it is published, at least an interim prime minister may be finally in place. It is generally believed that political parties are not likely to reach an agreement and the Election Commission of Pakistan will need to pick up a name from the list considered by the Parliamentary Committee. Whether there are real differences or it is a ‘nura kushti’ for public consumption is part of the buzz around. Openly only one deal has been talked about; that if the Pakistan People’s Party gets its choice as the Punjab interim chief minister then the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz can have its choice of the federal position of the interim prime minister or vice versa. There are other rumours to add to the spice in the menu.

It is also said that the delay has been caused because the current political powers want to hold on to their positions until after March 24. This is interpreted by some as the desire to control the March 23, 2013 jalsa scheduled at the Minar-e-Pakistan by Imran Khan of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf. The other desire is to create maximum hurdles at the time of the arrival of the former president Syed Pervez Musharraf in Karachi on March 24. This is the way of politics here! How can the Election Commission control these kinds of riggings? Neither Khan nor Musharraf will change their programmes. Musharraf has already proceeded for Umra and he will catch his flight on the 24th to Karachi. Musharraf’s visit to Saudi Arabia is also interpreted as an assurance from one of the most powerful supporters and friends of Pakistan. It may result in committing safe passage and freedom to Musharraf on his return. He also plans to visit the Mazar-e-Quaid the same day. As he has been granted bail in the cases he will be free to move about. Khan is holding his major gathering after the intra-party elections at Minar-e-Pakistan Lahore, and he will not change his plans. Any attempt to disrupt these programmes will be an obvious interference and reflective of the insecurities of the men in power. If we want democracy to flourish then the politicians in power and in opposition have to learn to ensure a level playing field for all. The Election Commission has also given the schedule for filing of papers by candidates. The date of polling has been announced as May 11, 2013. The only remaining decision is the interim prime minister! If the interim prime minister takes over by the publication of this article then the stage is set.

As far as the people at large are concerned they have hopes for ‘change’. They want change and any effort to force a status quo will take that ‘hope’ away and nations cannot survive without hope. For some reason, there is prevailing cynicism about the actual holding of the elections. Several people for some reason doubt if elections will be held at all. Could there be any solid reason?

One factor is mentioned that the law and order situation will deteriorate fast during the interim government because of its limited powers. It is yet to be seen as to what will be the effect of the boycott and ‘sit in’ by the Pakistan Awami Tehrik of Dr Tahirul Qadri. There is no doubt that Dr Qadri has the following to make his protest visible and impressive. This time he may not rely on assurances by the government of the time. The credibility is lost.

The latest case filed in the court by the veteran politician Dr Mubashar Hassan points at huge funding intended to rig the elections.

Could these factors create an effect that postpones the elections? So far it is anybody’s guess. Can a constitutional way be found to justify postponement of elections and extension in time? If it happens at all then it will open a whole new Pandora’s Box. Extensions or postponements will then be expected for a fairly long time. The logic will be that country’s economy and law and order is in such a dire state that actions to correct this situation must take priority over elections. The fact is that the majority of the people may even show little love for elections if their life continues to be miserable. Any government that helps them survive, or alleviates their miseries will be more acceptable than an unpredictable election result.

While one hopes for the nice things like the strengthening of democracy to happen, it is also necessary to look at the ground realities of the conditions prevailing in the country and the challenges faced by its populace. The sailing may not be as smooth as it appears on the surface. There can be turbulences ahead.

As I reach the closing of this article, there are strong rumours circulating that on Saturday an interim prime minister will be nominated and it could be Mr Ishrat Hussain, the former Governor State Bank of Pakistan or Justice Khosa. The readers are likely to know the selection this Saturday. Que sera sera…whatever will be, will be!

The writer is the former CEO Pakistan National Council of the Arts; Chairman Fruit processing Industries; Chairman UNESCO Theatre Institute Pakistan; COO ‘ICTV’ USA, and currently, Senior Vice President APML (Central). He can be reached at naeemtahir37@gmail.com