Daily Times

In Syria, the rebellion that started as a response to the violent suppression of peaceful protestors has morphed into a full scale civil war turning the country into an arena for regional and, to some extent, international power play. There are certain aspects of the war that have, after the passing of two years, become established facts that must be taken into account in order to devise a resolution to the conflict that is becoming bloodier by the day.

It is becoming evident that neither side will capitulate or be decisively defeated in the near future. The deadlock will result in more violence and bloodshed, and further disintegration of society and the state.

The conflict has become an explosive amalgam of proxy war, insurgency and sectarian strife where both sides are attracting people from the region and beyond to come and join the struggle.

A few nations have publicly stated their willingness to provide arms to the Syrian rebels in order for them to counter the overwhelming military superiority of Basher al-Assad’s forces. Enhancing the military capability of the rebels is a way of getting them prepared for a lengthy campaign for liberation that will, without doubt, culminate in the pointless destruction of a county that is home to more than 21 million people, and the custodian of a distinctive cultural heritage. Moreover, if the conflict is not contained quickly, it might spill over into its neighbouring countries and ignite the whole region into an inferno the likes of which we have seen during the Lebanese civil war.

There are still no signs that Bashar al-Assad will abdicate. The opposition has repeatedly stated that it will not take part in any peace talks until the incumbent president is deposed. This stance is backed by regional supporters of the Syrian opposition and evident in Arab League’s adoption of a resolution that hands over Syria’s seat in the organisation to the Syrian National Council. Comparatively, The US position is not so rigid. Secretary of State, John Kerry, has recently called on both sides to start negotiations. This is an indication that the US and Russia have finally engaged in constructive discussion regarding the embattled country.

Syria is Russia’s only remaining ally in the Middle East. A regime change in Syria will considerably reduce Russian influence in the region. However, Moscow has, by now, also realised that Assad’s days are numbered. The more he clings to power, the deadlier the conflict will become, which will also harm Russian interests. At this point, the most viable option for Russia is to chart a course, between the present regime and the opposition that secures its enduring influence in the country.

Moscow and Beijing have both rejected several resolutions in the security council citing their concern over widespread reprisal attacks against supporters of the current regime in post-Assad Syria. The west is still unable to come with a satisfactory solution to this dilemma. In fact, both the US and the Syrian opposition are fearful that a great political vacuum will be created once Assad is toppled. The resultant will be complete anarchy and a country divided into small fiefdoms controlled by local warlords.

Americans have witnessed the scenario play out in Iraq when the country descended into chaos after the US implemented its decision of disbanding the Iraqi army and doing away with its government institutions. This is the reason why US officials have clearly stated that the US will neither seek to liquidate the Syrian army nor make an attempt at de-Bathification. On the contrary, the rational elements within the civil service and the army will remain in place. The opposition, on its part, is also taking practical steps to ensure smooth and steady governance after Assad is gone.

The first step in this regard should have been the creation of an interim government that could represent Syria at the UN, Arab League and other regional and international forums. However, the leader of the opposition coalition, Sheikh Ahmad Moaz al-Khatib recently shied away from naming an interim prime minster saying that the move is premature and may lead to divisions within the ranks of the resistance. Khatib proposed the formation of an executive authority that will take Syria’s seat at the Arab League. The same authority will also be responsible for setting up government institutions in the areas under rebel control

A plan is also being developed for granting amnesty to all those army officers who agree to cooperate with the opposition. The rest will be blacklisted and treated as war criminals. The offer is also extended to the Alawite soldiers who can prove, beyond reasonable doubt that they were coerced into killing their own countrymen.

Wide swathes of northern Syria are already under rebel control. In these areas, the opposition must rebuild the ruined infrastructure and provide security to the people. The US has promised to provide the opposition with 60 million dollars for the same purpose. Meanwhile, there are efforts to secure rebel controlled areas from regime attacks, especially air strikes.

Sooner or later, Assad will fall. The only question is how much more Syria will have to suffer at his hands, and what will be the state of the country when he finally meets his fate. Rebuilding Syria will not be an easy task. Stitching together the remnants of a deeply fractured society will prove even more difficult. It is the responsibility of the international community to provide massive assistance to Syria during the stages of reconstruction while making sure that the minorities — especially Alawites — do not fall prey to the vengeful majority who have suffered for so long under the Assads.

The writer is an investment banker and a freelance columnist for various publications. He can be reached at syedatifshamim@hotmail.com