Daily Times

The administrative story of Prophet Yousaf (AS) starts with a request of appointing him as an administrator over the land of Egypt, which would face severe droughts-titled as the “Ahsan-ul-Qasas” meaning “The Best Story” and from verse fifty-five onwards.

“[Yusuf] said, “Appoint me over the storehouses of the land. Indeed, I will be a knowing guardian.”

This reflects the true spirit of meritocracy, where even a prophet must prove himself as a worthy statesman. The Quran discusses the excellent governance model, which included famine control measures, tackling severe hunger by encouraging good yields, balanced consumption of crops and proper storage of the agricultural produce. Thus, the rise of a prophet as an administrator was reflected in his wits and will to help the people.

The global grain regime has a role to play in determining the strength of a state and the political wisdom of a statesman; like Socrates said, “No man qualifies as a statesman who is entirely ignorant of the problems of wheat.”

The mighty Roman Empire cantered its political and trade decisions around the supply of wheat until it became independent after the inclusion of Egypt in its empire. To support its food regime, the British Empire put to practice the “corn law” and other trade restrictions on food inputs in 1846. This led to increased agricultural activity and revolutionised the British economy as the surplus-labour drove industrialisation. In “Merchants of Grain”, Dan Morgan wrote;

“Parliament with the stroke of repeal,….changed the world. Repeal of the protectionist system had opened England to the wheat of all the world, created incentives for the settlement of vast territories across the oceans and established the conditions for modern international trade, with new sea routes and modern trading empires.”

The “politics of wheat” is a significant driver in the strengthening or weakening of political powers within a state.

Therefore, it would be correct to deduce that the “politics of wheat” is a significant driver in the strengthening or weakening of political powers within a state.

Wheat and other grain have played a significant role in a country’s food security. The wheat production in Pakistan has shown a steady growth of 3.11 per cent over the years from six million tonnes to 27 million tonnes in 2021. However, these numbers fall short compared to China and India with 135 million tonnes and 105 million tonnes of wheat production in 2021 alone.

Some critics will immediately point out the 8% increase in the wheat production from 25 million tonnes produced in the FY 2021-22. But the systematic growth of wheat should have been significantly higher because Pakistan’s agro-ecological potential for irrigated wheat is much higher than Indians. The low yielding fertilisers, mishandling of the crop and the systematic reduction of wheat cultivating land are primary reasons for our low productivity.

The Rs 3 roti is now being sold at Rs 20, which indicates the rising food inflation and a poor commodity policy on behalf of the government. We are still the 8th largest wheat-producing country globally, but that is not enough to ensure stability in the country with a population of 220.5 million people and 1.4 Afghan refugees relying on to be fed.

The sugar and wheat cartels have been ever-present in Pakistan creating artificial food shortages and manipulating the political landscape to their advantage. It is no secret that the governments who fail to introduce adequate food security measures or fail to control food inflation meet a devastating end.

In a recent monetary policy statement, the State Bank of Pakistan practically exonerated itself of responsibility for core inflation by citing external causes such as increased oil prices and wheat shortages. The last-ditch effort to alleviate economic pressure.

On the other hand, records show that wheat output has decreased significantly over the last decade owing to natural reasons in three distinct events: – 6.9 per cent in 2012, -3.44 per cent in 2015, and -3.15 per cent in 2019. Additionally, the trade-off between farming land for key crops such as sugar, wheat, and cotton has been a source of consternation.

The agriculture gurus and practitioners have always known the industry’s challenges and have yet failed to introduce remedial actions effectively. We are well aware of the poor fertiliser quality, the non-availability of GMO seeds, the requirement to boost the per acreage production. Yet here we are in a situation surrounded by a massive rise in agricultural prices and our over-dependence on food imports, and a substantial current account deficit.

It seems that the policymakers are also oblivious to the international market wheat prices versus the local “support prices.” In a recent confusing move, the federal government announced Rs. 1800 per 40 kg as the “wheat support” price. The Sindh government fixed it at Rs. 2000 per 40 kg while the government imported wheat at Rs. 2500 per 40 kg bag – a loss of Rs. 400 to the local farmer.

Now wheat is the only commodity that justifies frequent government intervention could be a major contributor to the changing political scenario and decisions. The world’s most traded food commodity – “wheat” for centuries has impacted trade and politics. The politicians in Pakistan must realise and use it to their advantage as one of the major wheat-producing players.

In October, the inflation jumped to 9.2 per cent, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) exploded at 21.2 per cent indicating high prices in the coming months, the food inflation was recorded at 9.4 per cent, the core inflation excluding food and energy items surged to 6.7 per cent while the food group alone recorded an increase of 8.3 per cent. Now these coupled with the depreciating exchange rate will lead to more significant inflation in the country.

The current government needs to take drastic measures to improve the circular economy through technology transfer in the agriculture sector, control the exchange rate infused inflation in the coming month, reduce the gap between GMO usage by private and local farmers by ensuring its availability on a mass level at subsidised rates.

Most importantly, the government must not compromise in taking stern action against the cartels who continue to manipulate local farmers and the government. A complete crackdown through aggressive administrative control must be carried to put an end to the challenge.

This may very well be the “calm before the storm”, and If not addressed, food insecurity may become the downfall of PTI’s political ambitions as witnessed throughout history, whether the Arab Spring Cases in Egypt, Syria and Morocco or the turmoil seen in the Sahelian countries. Not to mention that the Pakistani population is amongst two-thirds of the world’s food-insecure population, including India and Bangladesh. Congo and others. Therefore, the likelihood of food riots and political destabilisation in our country is relatively high.

The writer is the Foreign Secretary-General for BRI College, China. He tweets @DrHasnain_javed.