Daily Times

On November 17, 2021, UN Special Representative to Afghanistan Deborah Lyons held a press conference at the UN headquarters in New York and warned the international community of the impending humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan.  Further, she urged the international community to find ways to extend financial support to the Afghans, who had been sandwiched between the obstinacy of the Taliban government and the determination of the United States and its allies. Two factors make the Taliban adamant. First, the Taliban are motivated by the assumption that they are the legitimate representatives of most Afghans. Second, they believe that there is no need to initiate a mechanism of democracy to determine the legitimacy of their rule to represent the Afghans. On 20 January 2021, with the assumption of the office, President of the United States (US) Joe Biden inherited the Afghan war. At that time, it was known that the Afghan Government run by former President Ashraf Ghani could not survive a day without the support of foreign forces. Further, it was also known that acquiescing to the Taliban’s demand for the withdrawal of foreign troops before the conclusion of an intra-Afghan agreement would be tantamount to squandering all the time and money that the US and its allies invested in Afghanistan in the past two decades. Both apprehensions came true later on. In hindsight, the hasty withdrawal of foreign forces actuated today’s crisis.

Pakistan apprehends that the ISIS tentacles are bound to reach its mainland, especially when its streets have got volatile on religious grounds.

The Taliban consider Afghanistan their domain conquered first in 1996 and now in 2021. The fall of Kabul has been the symbol of the Taliban’s spree of conquest. The difference is that, subsequent to the 1996 victory, the Taliban’s rule over Kabul was recognized by Pakistan, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia in 1997. This time, in 2021, however, the recognition process to seal the fate of the Taliban’s legitimacy over Kabul is conditional. That is, the Taliban can takeover Kabul but they cannot get recognized unless they meet certain requirements of the international community. On 29 February 2021, in Doha, the US-Taliban agreement on the withdrawal of foreign forces imposed on the Taliban certain demands: refusing safe heavens to the al-Qaeda remnants, forming an inclusive government in Kabul, and safeguarding the rights of women and minorities. The Taliban have yet to deliver on these demands. Consequently, since 15 August 2021, when the Taliban took over power, the US has frozen the assets of the Afghan central bank amounting to the US $ 9.5 billion, besides imposing sanctions on the Taliban. In a way, the US is coercing the Taliban government financially to deliver on the demands. In 1997, Pakistan lobbied with the Islamic countries of the Middle East to offer legitimacy to the Taliban’s rule over Kabul. This time, however, Pakistan is bereft of such an option. This is why Pakistan has been trying to persuade regional countries bordering Afghanistan to do the job of recognition. This time, however, the US has been using Qatar to watch its interests in Afghanistan. A few days ago, on 11 November 2021, the administration of President Joe Biden announced to make Qatar serve as its diplomatic representative in Afghanistan. Since 2013, Qatar had been enjoying close ties with the Taliban by offering them an office and, in 2018, Qatar helped Taliban-US negotiations take place to close a deal on 29 February 2020 that led to the withdrawal of US/NATO forces from Afghanistan. The agreement also enshrined a provision making it incumbent on the Taliban to hold an intra-Afghan talk for making an inclusive government. No development has taken place on this front. Interestingly, on the one hand, Pakistan has been pressurized to facilitate the much needed intra-Afghan dialogue whereas, on the other hand, Pakistan has been dissuaded to take any initiative to support Afghanistan. On its own, Pakistan has tried to develop a consensus of the regional countries bordering Afghanistan to make the recognition of Afghanistan a regional affair.

One of the benefits could be to enable the Taliban government to procure financial aid from the region instead of relying on international help. The catch is that if the availability of financial help is made possible without recognizing Afghanistan, the Taliban might stop listening to the demands of the international community. On the other hand, time is running out. According to the World Bank, one out of three Afghans is on the brink of starvation. The percentage would increase over time in the winter, with growing hunger amid soaring food prices. Cash is in short supply and the economy is in free-fall. For Pakistan, the immediate point of concern is the activities of the Islamic State (or ISIS) inside Afghanistan. Apparently, the Islamic State has been gaining momentum in Afghanistan, as indicated by the number of attacks which were around 60 in 2020 and are around 330 this year, according to the UN. Pakistan, however, apprehends that the organization’s tentacles are bound to reach its mainland sooner or later, especially when Pakistan’s streets have got volatile on religious grounds. Media reports are that the link between the Taliban and the Islamic State is not tenuous.

Further, fast depleting reserves and high inflation of the Afghan currency may make the country lean on Pakistan for its financial survival. This might be the replica of 1991 when al-Qaeda anchored its root in the Afghan land. At that time, especially in Karachi, Pakistan also witnessed bank robberies that were used to fund certain militant groups in Afghanistan. The past may revert to haunt the present. The world is also wary of the administration of the Taliban who tend to choose a battlefield victory instead of pursuing a political settlement. Currently, Ambassador Ghulam Isaczai, permanent representative of Ghani’s government to the UN, has been holding Afghanistan’s seat at the UN. Further, the situation is pregnant with declaring Ghani’s government a legitimate government in exile, if the Taliban backtrack on the pledge of performing political and social inclusivity.

The writer can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com