Daily Times

The world is changing and these changes are not going away. They are bound to stay. Getting caught in our daily business, we tend to lose sight of the greater picture. To keep looking at what is going on around us, some history is important to get the right perspective and, thus, be able to make the right decisions.

After the recent withdrawal of the western powers from Afghanistan, Pakistan and even India have rejected the possibility for their “over-the-horizon” air attacks. This was further crystallised with Moscow recently categorically stating that it will not accept a US military presence in the Central Asian region. Having turned away from Afghanistan in the 90s, the US engagement may be reduced considerably. However, it should not abandon the country altogether if it is to remain credible in the region. Resolving the Afghanistan situation is now in the hands of regional powers with China, Russia and Pakistan taking the lead. This initiative will make it easier to integrate Afghanistan into the region and help ordinary Afghans to find work and income and solve the problems that the 20-year war had created. Recent developments show plans to develop another North-South corridor, destined, according to its initiators, to link Russia and Pakistan via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Such a route will have considerable potential for the region, for Pakistan and Afghanistan, in particular. Moreover, for Pakistan, it will complement the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); adding another facet to the developing network.

Globalisation means to interconnect the whole world. The north-south connectivity is a vital part of development that aims at bringing at par formerly underdeveloped regions by opening up natural resources for trade and industrial production. Eurasia, as the continental landmass interconnected by the corridors in the making, will eradicate old notions of the “second” and “third” world that made nations inferior economically, politically and culturally and, in place of the old order, create the reality of equal members in a multipolar system. This connection is the bedrock of the Eurasian Century. Africa would be the next connecting continent in the furthering of the north-south connections. Only by connecting Africa will we be able to have two-way access to get those natural resources that both the continents can provide, it is the only way that poverty can be fought with any hope for success. Until today, billions have been spent by organisations trying to alleviate poverty, without much success. Including Africa and other far-away (in today’s terms) regions into trade routes and enabling them to utilise the advantages of their location to be included in the global production circle will be a sustainable way of eliminating poverty. North-south corridors of rail and road that connect to Africa would in future create a new, African regional hub that connects to other hubs like Eurasia, the Americas.

For dealing with Afghanistan, the SCO has empowered the troika – Russia, China, Pakistan – as their diplomatic forefront.

There are two main trends in current global development: one is a unifying trend (globalisation and integration), the other is a tendency towards decentralisation and regionalisation. We have seen rapid growth in both spheres, globalisation and regionalisation. Both have drastically transformed the contours of the international power relations and the world geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. One interesting aspect of these two seemingly adverse tendencies is the erosion, on the one hand, of national borders by road, rail and pipelines and on the other, a strong holding on to “national” territories that results in the fearing up of territorial disputes like the ones between China and India, Pakistan and India, Russia and Japan, Russia and Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia, etc. Regionalisation includes a process of redistributing power of the nation-state towards a regional organisation and the emergence of new regional organisations ready to take these tasks.

Force-multiplying the possibility of the Eurasian century is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). Created in 2001, the SCO is a Eurasian political, economic, and security alliance. It is the world’s largest regional organisation in geographic scope and population, covering three-fifths of the Eurasian continent, 40 per cent of the world population, and more than 20 per cent of global GDP. The latest addition to this already formidable community was Iran, which started the joining process last month. Created for mainly economic cooperation, the SCO (in view of the situation in Afghanistan and the growing threat of terrorism) had to include security in its working profile. Consider also the Eurasian Economic Union. Founded in 2015, the EAEU is an economic union of post-Soviet states located in Eastern Europe, Western Asia, and Central Asia. The EAEU has an integrated single market of 180 million people and a gross domestic product of over US$5 trillion. Its charter encourages the free movement of goods and services and provides for common policies in the macroeconomic sphere, transport, industry and agriculture, energy, foreign trade and investment, customs, technical regulation, competition, and antitrust regulation. Provisions for a single currency and greater integration are envisioned for the future.

While the process of Eurasian integration is ongoing, there are quite visible tensions that hamper but do not prevent the process. There is certainly a competition going on between China and Russia that during the last years has given way to real trust and mutual reliability in political terms. There is no doubt that the India-Pakistan border disputes and rivalries render the SAARC, another regional organisation, powerless. The Afghan quagmire adds juice to the mix. But as we know from our personal lives, problems and the need to deal with them bring interested sides closer together. The Dushanbe Declaration adopted by the recent SCO meeting was quite explicit on what Eurasian players are aiming at: “a more representative, democratic, just and multipolar world order based on universally recognised principles of international law, cultural and civilisational diversity, mutually beneficial and equal cooperation of states under the central coordinating role of the UN.”

For dealing with Afghanistan, the SCO has empowered the troika – Russia, China, Pakistan – as their diplomatic forefront. It reached a consensus that Islamabad will coordinate with the Taliban on the formation of an inclusive government that includes Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Iran has started the membership process and Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked in Dushanbe that the portfolio of nations knocking on the SCO’s door was huge. Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are now SCO dialogue partners, on the same level as Afghanistan and Turkey. It’s quite feasible they may be joined next year by Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Serbia and dozens of others. That is why we can be assured that the Eurasian century is in the making and while it could be delayed for certain reasons, it can’t be stopped.Concluded

The writer is a defence and security analyst, Chairman (Karachi Council of Foreign Affairs) and Vice-Chairman (Board of Management, Institute of Nation-Building, Quaid-e-Azam House Museum).

The writer is a former Professor of South Asian Studies, Humboldt University, Editor (Defence Journal) and a Consultant (Pathfinder Group)