Daily Times

The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 was awarded jointly to Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann. It is for the physical modelling of Earth’s climate and Giorgio Parisi for the discovery of the interplay of disorder and fluctuations in physical systems from atomic to planetary scales.

Randomness and disorder characterize complex systems and they are difficult to understand. This year’s Prize also recognises new methods for describing them and predicting their long-term behaviour.
One complex system of vital importance to humankind is also Earth’s climate. Syukuro Manabe demonstrated how increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere lead to increased temperatures at Earth’s surface. In the 1960s, he led the development of physical models of the Earth’s climate. He was the first person to explore the interaction between radiation balance and the vertical transport of air masses. His work laid the foundation for the development of current climate models.

Climate models can be reliable

About ten years later, Klaus Hasselmann created a model that links together weather and climate. He answered the question of why climate models can be reliable despite weather being changeable and chaotic. He also developed methods for identifying specific signals, fingerprints, that both natural phenomena and human activities imprint in the climate. His methods have been used to prove that the increased temperature is due to human emissions of carbon dioxide.

Around 1980, Giorgio Parisi discovered hidden patterns in disordered complex materials. His discoveries are among the most important contributions to the theory of complex systems. They also make it possible to understand and describe many different and apparently entirely random materials and phenomena. Not only in physics but also in other, very different areas, such as mathematics, biology, neuroscience and machine learning.

“The discoveries being recognised this year demonstrate that our knowledge about the climate rests on a solid scientific foundation, based on a rigorous analysis of observations. This year’s Laureates have all contributed. It is for us to gain deeper insight into the properties and evolution of complex physical systems,” says Thors Hans Hansson, chair of the Nobel Committee for Physics.