Daily Times

The finance ministry would be relieved by the decision of the Paris Club group of creditors to delay Pakistan’s debt repayment till the end of the year, though so far nobody has clarified how much of it’s $11.5 billion is due. Yet it would also be mindful that the relief is temporary, and it will have to cough up the cash, one way or the other, within this fiscal. It’s a good thing then that the pandemic, for which the window has been granted, has begun receding in this country. If things remain on track the virus would be much less of a concern by December and it should be much easier to deliver the Paris Club its money along with our gratitude.

Far away from Islamabad, the central bank in Karachi would also have cheered up a little. For anything that can prevent an immediate demand for dollars is welcome news at the SBP (State Bank of Pakistan) as it tries to adjust monetary policy and also provide some support to the rupee. But regardless of the pandemic there’s nothing in the money market to suggest that the exchange rate would be any more stable in a few months. It must, then, build reserves and keep a very close watch on the fragile bond market all this time to prepare for the squeeze on the rupee that will surely come when dollar-debt has to be repaid.

Such, unfortunately, are the problems that come with a lot of debt. And even though reserves are strong, it’s not very comforting that they too have been built with debt, which now accounts for a good 90 percent of the country’s gross domestic product. With a weak rupee, shaky reserves, low exports, rising current account deficit and collapsing equity market, the economy faces very stiff headwinds.

It would be a good idea to try and get more of our debt repayment schedule pushed a little further down, just like Paris Club has done. Whatever time we get from it will be very precious in the present setting, but only if it is used wisely. *