Daily Times

Not daring to challenge Lucifer in the true sense, watching the current scenes of burning fires, news of unprecedented heat waves, earthquakes, cyclones, and floods show that the heatwave nicknamed “Lucifer” is creating hell on earth. Extreme hot weather has been reported in Europe, Spain, Italy, Portages, Greece and Athens and uncontrollable recent fires in Turkey and Arizona are just a few examples of how extreme weather variation can create havoc on earth. While scientists grapple with research on variables contributing to changing patterns of weather, questions do arise as to how well prepared and aware are we to embrace the after-effects of such happening in future? On one hand, there is the 18 years old Swedish environmentalist kid Greta Thunberg challenging the UN and world leaders for aiding actions against the globe that make the earth a “not fit planet to live”, on the other hand, we have sceptics who shun the idea of Climate Change as a conspiracy. Where do we go from here to curtail Lucifer then?

On one busy evening, the streets of Hawaii bustled with a holiday jubilant mood of masses, which suddenly changed as local TV warned of a hurricane in Big Island, with a likelihood of reaching Honolulu in a few hours. The attitude of the crowd, widow shopping, having street food, listening to street music changed. More focused they started buying dry food items, huge bottles of water, canned food, milk, batteries, and off the counter medication. The Waikiki beach was empty within minutes and after few hours you could see empty streets, closed shops shuttered down widows, and rescue relief vehicles parked in every street. A mixture of nationalities behaving in a similar focused manner was an amazing behavioural observation. While the deep grey skies and ocean seemed to be one huge mass of rain waves and water, the warning systems still worked. It was a huge world war bunker able to sustain high earthquake shakes and hurricanes where the Emergency Information and Monitoring hub was situated. The computerized system was divided separately for each region of Honolulu continuously monitoring the waterlogging, wind pressure and population data for each sector, and if the need arose the number of people with special needs, children and old aged could be rescued in a short period from the affected area. Ok, the government was well prepared.

An interesting report on CNN reported that Hong Kong had built a vast $3.8 billion rain-tunnel network, running nearly the length of Hong Kong Island protecting the city from flooding caused by seasonal typhoons which in past was the cause of lives lost and widespread destruction. It took five years to build a 10.5-kilometre tunnel with a capacity to intercept one-third of rainwater at 34 points taking the water directly into the ocean. Ok, again the government is ready.

Since the research on global warming and weather pattern is heavy in scientifically based terms, we forget ‘the human’ factor.

It’s easy to understand the preparedness part of the Governments. However, the mass compliant behaviour to adopt self-protective behaviour without any force is most intriguing, especially, if we compare the Pakistani population with countries well prepared for disasters. Islamabad had a taste of fire on Margalla hills, flood in E-11, and urban flooding in Karachi last year, raising questions on our preparedness to deal natural disasters caused by climatic factors. That’s where we need to explore not only scientific metrological causes but climate change phenomena with relation to human behaviour also.

That’s where I dare to disagree with the policy and preparedness component that mainly focus on technical aspects, engineering solutions, town planning and policy initiatives which by the end of the day put all responsibility on the governments and disaster-related Institutions for any loss by the disaster. In other words, we exclude the human factors and behaviour of the masses that increases their vulnerability to be potential victims of any future disaster. Since the research on global warming and weather pattern is heavy in scientifically based terms, we forget “the human” factor where decision making for attitude change and adopting preventive behaviours involves complex cognitive, emotional, economic and environmental factors. Maybe that’s where the masses continue to flout risk preventive behaviour, thus, unknowingly contribute to the phenomenon of global warming which will bring Lucifer here too!

While global warming is a phenomenon verified by science, climate change is one impact of global warming showing the earth is now facing long-term changes in weather patterns, thus, sudden floods, fires, food scarcity, water crises due to increased heat are happening right now. The more greenhouse effect the more will climate show changing patterns and high probability of occurrence of disasters related to heat and cold variation around the globe, thus, putting human security at risk worldwide.

Masses need to be informed that living on nullahs with human-animal waste and plastic bags mixed in water, overcrowded cities and electricity networks hanging on our heads, factories spilling their waste in natural water resources acidifying the water, unmonitored hospital waste spilt on roads, burning of massive heaps of household waste in open, cutting of trees and crushing of mountains are all contributing to Global warming putting our children in danger. Thus, everyone including the government and masses has to play a part in controlling climate change. It is important to make the masses aware of the phenomenon in simple terms to help them change their behaviour and to emphasize that neither the government nor the disaster management institutions can do anything unless the public is a partner to counter the phenomenon.

World Bank Climate Change Portal puts Pakistan at high risk for continued changing patterns of weather with heatwaves increasing both in intensity and duration. In 2015 over 65000 were hospitalized for heatstroke, while as per UNISDR Pakistan incurred a loss of one billion dollars in 2010 monsoon flooding affecting one-fifth of the whole country.

The Karachi Urban Flooding according to the Sindh government was due to unprecedented rain breaking 89 years old record, and according to Arab News last year, urban flooding caused an estimated loss of 71 million dollars during the rainy week. While the expansion of Nullahs opening blocked drainage is well on its way in Karachi, there is a need for Government to introduce an aggressive mass media campaign and relate the climate change to the occurrence of natural disasters which neither the government nor disaster management institutions can control. We need to help the masses understand the effect of their actions in terms of future disasters thus help them change their behaviour as research indicates one major factor in risk-taking behaviour is lack of information. Change in approach from technical to human behaviour change is need of time along with challenging the perception that makes government or the institutions solely responsible to handle the aftermath of natural disasters. Both media and masses need to be trained and informed about the human factors contributing to likely natural disasters in future.

As world over the economic impact of extreme weather is increasing making climate change a human security imperative, research now focuses on the intricate relationship between human behaviour and weather patterns. The need for human behaviour change strategies and incorporating mass awareness are vital components to fight Climate Change in this region. Yes, we need tough policies, strong technical and engineering solutions, but we all have to work and change our behaviour to leash the Lucifer unleashed by all of us for our children in future.

The writer is a clinical psychologist and Fellow (Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies)