Daily Times

AUKUS seems like a name of a secret organisation from a Robert Ludlum or an Ian Fleming novel. Cold War parallels notwithstanding, it does seem to hark back to an era of intrigue and espionage. This is of course the new working group recently announced by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and US President Joe Biden. It will include sharing of advanced technologies (artificial intelligence, cyber, quantum, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities). Perhaps more importantly, it comprises the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines–especially for the use of Australia. This has meant that Australia will renege on $40 billion worth of French submarines, consequently angering the French government to such an extent that it has termed it “a stab in the back!”

The pay-off must be quite substantial for Australia to withstand that level of diplomatic acrimony. The US and the UK have more of its back while it looks to walk that thin line between working with China and also containing it on behalf of this pact. That is the epitome of a tight rope feat if there ever was one! In essence, this agreement is a thinly and very poorly veiled attempt to counter the growing influence of China.

Nevertheless, it perhaps foretells the new global order that is unfolding at a rapid pace–with the US in one corner and China in the other! China may need not worry too much. There is many a slip between the cup and the lip. One, this has the potential to alienate a lot of allies as exemplified by the Australia-French debacle. Two, there are a lot of bilateral agreements still to be had and negotiated, especially where national interests trump wider understandings. Three, New Zealand has already said that it won’t allow nuclear submarines in its waters particularly considering that people on Pacific Islands contend with a legacy of many nuclear detonations from the Cold War era. Four, the EU – with France, a vocal player – has still to release its Indo-Pacific strategy. This can still be influenced by a frustrated French president!

For the UK, this is also about realigning its foreign and defence policy in a post-Brexit world. Something, that Boris Johnson alludes to as “Global Britain.”

The Chinese leadership is well-experienced and quite keenly aware that economic impact generally trumps defence influence!

As a senior White House official revealed, “Great Britain has been a very strong strategic leader in this effort, helping mediate and engage on all the critical issues,” as the partnership was being written up behind closed doors. After the UK’s very public disagreement with Joe Biden’s withdrawal approach in Afghanistan, the AUKUS treaty at least tries to re-ignite the notion of the “special relationship” between the two. Albeit, the UK has to do more of America’s bidding in the Indo-Pacific with increased presence and engagement. Having said that, what about thousands of Chinese students and tourists coming to the UK? What becomes of the dependence of the UK retail market on Chinese manufacturers? How will the UK deal with alternate routes now that its access to the European markets is not as friction-free as before? These are considerations that Boris Johnson will have to carefully manage in the near future!

After the AUKUS announcement, the Chinese foreign ministry clarified that China’s application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is completely unrelated to this new Indo-Pacific security alliance. Though this highlights the potential avenues that China can take to increase its commodity access to many parts of the world to establish further economic interests at a global scale. The Chinese leadership is well-experienced and quite keenly aware that economic impact generally trumps defence influence! This is also clearly visible in the Chinese dedication to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Ironically, it was none other than the US – under the leadership of Donald Trump – that left the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which was the precursor to the CPTP. It was originally set up to be an important economic counterweight to China’s regional influence!

In any case, it seems that the dye is cast and new alignments are in the offing in light of AUKUS! In the future, it may be possible for the two remaining members of the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance (FYEV) – New Zealand and Canada – to get roped into this agreement. Subsequently, it may come down to other nations such as Japan and Singapore, which, have, for now, maintained a neutral stance to this announcement. China will also want to extend the numbers in its corner and may convince other Indo-Pacific and South-East Asian nations to align with Chinese interests.

“May you live in interesting times,” is an often-used but perhaps wrongly-attributed Chinese saying. These are interesting times indeed but they are also a nightmare for defence and foreign policymakers alike! The more they take cognisance of a rapidly changing diplomatic chessboard, the better their chances will be for a sensible policy response.

The writer is Director Programmes for an international ICT organization based in the UK and writes on corporate strategy, socio-economic and geopolitical issues