Daily Times

After closing the second straight week in negative by shedding 1.85 percent on a week-on-week basis to reach $1,754.80 per ounce against the preceding week closure price of $1,787.80, gold’s near-term technical outlook seems to be bearish.

Overall, the gold price has shed over 4 percent during the last two weeks. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart has dropped below 40 and moved sideways on Friday last, suggesting that gold has more room on the downside before it becomes technically oversold.

From a technical view, the support levels at present are at $1,745, $1,723.50 and $1,714.95 while gold is likely to face resistance at $1,768.50, $1,779.45 and $1,795. A daily close below $1,750 (static level) could open the door for additional losses toward $1,730 (static level) and $1,720 (static level).

However, in case the RSI breaks below 30 with such a move, there could be a technical correction before the next leg down. The last time the RSI dropped into the oversold territory on a Monday on August 9, gold gained nearly 3 percent in the remainder of the week.

Meanwhile, the price of gold decreased by 1.86 percent in Pakistan during the last week. The price of 10 grams of yellow metal in Pakistan was Rs96,600 at the opening of the last week and it decreased to Rs94,800 to close the week. The depreciation in gold price in international and local markets remained almost the same as the local currency depreciated by only 0.10 percent against the US dollar during the week, with the dollar opening at Rs168.02 on Monday last and closing at Rs168.19 on Friday last.

Gold started the last week in a relatively calm manner and continued to fluctuate in the previous week’s horizontal channel on Monday. Although the precious metal managed to rise above $1,800 on Tuesday, it came under strong bearish pressure in the second half of the week and fell to its lowest level in a month at $1,745 on Thursday. The gold price struggled to stage a convincing rebound ahead of the weekend and closed the second straight week in the negative territory, losing nearly 2 percent.

In the week starting Monday (today), the US Federal Reserve will announce monetary policy decisions alongside the updated Summary of Projections On Wednesday. In case, the Federal Reserve unveils that the Fed will start reducing asset purchases before the end of the year, the US dollar is likely to gather strength and force gold to turn south. On the other hand, if the Fed refrains from delivering a tapering timeline, it could trigger a heavy dollar selloff and fuel a gold rally.

It is pertinent to mention that TLTP Research Wing predicted on September 12 that gold’s near-term outlook had turned neutral with bearish bias.