Daily Times

Around two-third participants of a poll expect status quo in the policy rate in the upcoming monetary policy statement on Monday (September 20).

A survey conducted by the research wing of Topline Securities revealed that around 25 percent participants believe an increase of 25 basis points in the key policy rate. Likewise, 10 percent of the participants anticipate an increase of 50 basis points or above. However, none of the participants expect a cut in the policy rate.

It said that around 65 percent of the poll participants are expecting no change in the policy rate in the upcoming monetary policy statement, compared with 89 percent in the previous poll. A total of 68 participants took part in the latest poll, compared with 62 in the July 2021 poll, which was conducted for the July 2021 monetary policy statement.

Analysts at Topline Securities expect a 25 basis points increase in the policy rate in September 2021, given the recent vulnerabilities in the current account, higher-than-expected Sensitive Price indicator (SPI) readings, suggesting no let down in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and start of discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on resumption of the programme.

In total, 54 percent of the participants expect an increase in the policy rate in 2021. Around 44 percent of the participants are expecting an increase in the policy rate by 50 basis points during 2021, while 10 percent of the participants are expecting a rise of 100 basis points or above during the year.