Daily Times

Lower than average rainfall over the past seven weeks or so seems to have rung alarm bells for the agriculture sector because he Indus River System Authority (Irsa) now believes that neither Mangla nor Tarbela dam would be properly filled this year, which puts Rabi crops at great risk. It was just two months ago that the new finance minister, upon strict instructions from the prime minister himself, put the agriculture sector at the centre of the country’s attempt to snap out of low growth and engineer a proper economic takeoff.

Safeguarding the agri sector was supposed to score a number of goals at once. One, it was going to enhance production, which means the farmers would earn better and the whole country would be well fed. Two, it would save billions from the import bill. And three, there was also the prospect of returning to the old days when we exported a fair amount of our surplus production. The only catch in the whole thing was, and continues to be, the fact that the country still more or less relies on ancient methods of irrigation, which leaves it captive to changing trends in rainfall.

Data from the Meteorological Department suggests that it rained 58pc less this year than the average for the first three months of August, which has left the country as a whole with a 22pc rain deficit. And since we rely on rainwater to run our agriculture, despite being an agri-dominated economy and culture, it seems the whole country must simply keep paying for the lack of foresight of successive governments that just stood idly by as the whole sector collapsed around them.

Irsa had reportedly already resigned itself to the fact that Mangla would go unfilled this year, but now it seems almost certain that Tarbela is going to suffer a similar fate. That his is only the third time in Tarbela Dam’s 44-year history that it is going unfilled goes to show the depth and gravity of the concern it must have caused in decision-making circles in Islamabad. Suddenly, in what was going to be our growth year, there is again the prospect of agriculture collapsing, requiring sudden imports at a time when commodity prices are rising in the international market, and more pressure on the current account. Already exports are not rising in proportion to imports, remittances are expected to plateau as international travel is re-opening, and FDI (foreign direct investment) is beelining for the exit door.

The entire agriculture sector is in urgent need of a technological makeover, from irrigation to seed selectin to plantation and harvesting. And the sooner the government turns its attention to such extremely crucial matters the better for farmers, consumers, exports as well as the current account. *