Daily Times

There are jokes galore about Donald Trump as ‘president’ of the US, precisely because it has been considered unlikely until now. The joke could easily be on those making fun of the US electoral drama, with Trump being centrestage as the ‘pretend’ president. This is captured well in a Sydney Morning Herald cartoon, which shows a man kneeling and addressing his God pleading that he was only kidding when he said, “Wouldn’t it be hilarious if Donald Trump became president…” And normally it would be hilarious because you wouldn’t expect Americans, who are among some of the smartest people in the world, to even consider the idea of Trump as president of the United States.

But things are getting serious now, with Trump emerging as the presumptive Republican Party presidential candidate. So much so that some of the party heavyweights felt so revolted that they declared their intention not to attend the Republican Party convention where Trump might be anointed the party’s candidate, though they are now talking of party unity. Indeed, there was even a suggestion that Mitt Romney, the 2012 failed Republican presidential nominee, might be put up as an independent to deny Trump the prospective candidacy. But the Republican Party is coming around to the idea of Trump as their candidate, however distasteful it is to the party establishment.

As of now, opinion polls seem to suggest that in a straight presidential contest between Hillary Clinton and Trump, the former might prevail, though the margin in her favour appears to be shrinking. But don’t bet on it. One important reason, as we have seen so far with the Trump campaign, is that he is merciless in lampooning his rivals, which is outside the limits of anything seen before. For instance, Ted Cruz was a “liar”, Marco Rubio was “little Marco”, Jeb Bush was “low energy” and so on. And his appreciative and admiring audience liked such caricaturing of the political class for whom they have come to have a pretty low opinion. Trump projected himself as an outsider without any political baggage. Trump as ‘outsider’, with his self-promotion as a successful businessman, was the sort of person to fix up the ‘broken’ political system without wanting any financial returns, being already a billionaire in his own right.

In other words, Trump is not a corrupt politician involved in wheeling and dealing, and hence was free to say things that needed to be said, which the country’s political class tended to avoid because they were all compromised. And this sort of silent conspiracy among the political class had brought the country to its low point with dangers all around, with friends and foes taking the US for a ride. For instance, Muslims, inside and outside the US, are a menace and must be kept out. The migrants, particularly the Mexicans with nearly 12 million of them considered illegals and more and more of them flooding in, would need to be walled off. The US’s western allies have lived off American security umbrella for years without making any worthwhile contribution to their defence. Japan has been piggy-riding the US defence machine ever since the 1950s, with no obligation to share US burden. As for Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies, their contribution in the Middle East is to stoke fires of Islamic fundamentalism.

It is not that what Trump says is true but he is articulating the disparate anxieties of many Americans, promising that he will make America great once again. How he will do is not important at the present. What is important is that he is saying these things and, in the process, highlighting the corrosion of the ruling political class. And that makes him a darling of many people, particularly the middle aged and older whites who simply feel disempowered and sometimes even strangers in their own country. Again, it is not the reality but they perceive this as their reality.

And he is also popular among many white blue-collar workers who believe that they have lost their jobs and prospects from cheaper manufactured and imported goods from low-wage economies, like China and other developing countries. Indeed, these whites are becoming the new ‘blacks’ (economically speaking), looking to the state for help and handouts. Romney, the last Republican presidential candidate referred to them as among “freeloaders.” Writing in National Review recently, Kevin Williamson, was contemptuous of them as deadweight. He said, “The truth about these dysfunctional, downscale communities is that they deserve to die. Economically, they are negative assets. Morally, they are indefensible…Forget your sanctimony about struggling Rust Belt factory towns…The white American underclass is in thrall to a vicious, selfish culture whose main products are misery and used heroin needles.” He goes on, “Donald Trump’s speeches make them feel good. So does [opium derived] OxyContin.” In other words, Trump’s rhetoric and rant make poor whites feel empowered.

Bernie Sanders also appeals to the American underclass but his message is more sophisticated to lift them economically by positing their misery against greed of the Wall Street, meaning the higher end of the town. The danger is that Sanders’ supporters might either shift their votes to Trump or simply not turn up to vote if Clinton, as seems most likely, becomes the Democratic presidential nominee. And that will only help Trump. Based on such arithmetic of grassroots white support, Trump has a very good chance of winning the presidency in a straight race with Clinton.

However, despite her lack of charisma and political baggage of her husband’s presidency, as well as her own dubious record as secretary of state, Clinton has been going about her task with considerable diligence and calculation. She has been trying to forge a coalition of African-American, Latino and other minority groups. And she is positing herself as champion of women’s rights. Indeed, she wants to be seen as making history to become the first woman president, and is urging the country’s ‘sisterhood’ to make that a reality by voting for her. It will make history if she were to become the country’s president, as with Barack Obama as the first African-American president of the United States. It is not working as smoothly because many young women are not buying into this narrative as part of a continuing struggle for women’s liberation. But she does have electoral advantage over Trump among women voters.

The opinion polls seemed to suggest that Clinton is likely to prevail in a straight contest with Trump, though her lead appears to be shrinking. But wait till Trump has finished with his hatchet job of digging up dirt and spreading it all around. For instance, on her credentials as a champion of women, he has dubbed her as an “enabler” in her husband’s sexual peccadillos. As for courting African-Americans, Bill Clinton’s record as president in terms of a big hike in their prison population, and Hillary’s enthusiastic support of it, is bit of a black mark against her. But she is still likely to get majority black vote any way. Overall, it is going to be a close contest, and don’t be surprised if Trump manages to prove that he is for real, and not just a fictional character.

The writer is a senior journalist and academic based in Sydney, Australia. He can be reached at sushilpseth@yahoo.com.au