Daily Times

In this most unusual of election cycles, American voters appear to be sorting out into two rival camps that are more complicated than the usual left-right divide. A large number of Democratic voters are threatening to go Republican. Many Republicans are threatening to do the same for the Democrats.

One of these political camps, sometimes called “globalists” or name-called the “neocons,” is in favor of both more war and more trade. The other camp, who prefer to be called “populists” and are derided as “isolationists,” are generally against war but also extremely skeptical of free trade.

It seems to me that both camps of voters are wrong in a ways that are bad for America and also toxic to the peace of nations. Let me explain.

The globalists are clearly wrong about all the warmongering. They don’t believe that peace is an especially important goal and instead focus on perceived injustices that America can make right through our substantial military might. When confronted with evidence that their wars and interventions have made things worse — for America, for noncombatants in those countries who happen to get in the way, for the neighbors who have to deal with any spillover — they usually change the subject. Thus, Marco Rubio piously batted aside a question about Iraq by saying, “The world is a better place because Saddam Hussein is not there.”

There’s no proof the world is, on balance, a better place because America invaded Iraq. The cost to our nation for doing so, in terms of both blood and treasure, was steep. About 5,000 American troops are dead. Total costs, when long-term care for tens of thousands of wounded are factored in, will run to the trillions of dollars.

Populists don’t like all of that waste, and they are right to be wary of evermore wars. At the same time, they charge that our current export-import regime amounts to a kind of theft. The international trade system is somehow taking advantage of American workers by making them buy cheap goods that were manufactured on foreign soil.

That’s exactly the wrong approach to take, for two reasons.

The first reason is that this is essentially economic scapegoating. America does have competitiveness problems, but they are mostly homegrown.

Our corporate taxes are far too high, much higher than most other nations. American companies that do substantial business overseas are finding it difficult to get profits to investors without getting hit with whopping tax bills. Many companies are thus merging with foreign firms, with the leadership shifting to other countries, to get around this.

Also, our regulations at the state, local and federal levels have become too burdensome for many businesses, especially the smaller ones. This has driven the number of job-creating start-ups down and stifled job growth. Fewer firms bidding for workers also means lower wage growth, one real reason for all the populist anger.

By turning their fire on imports and neglecting the profit- and job-stifling policies that help to make trade so imbalanced, populists are giving those folks who are weighing our economy down a free pass. We need serious regulatory reduction. We won’t get that so long as we’re blaming foreigners for the problem.

The second reason they’re wrong about this is that trade has historically proven a great substitute for war. New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman coined the silly-sounding “Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention,” which observed that, for a while there anyway, no two countries with McDonald’s went to war. The McDonald’s Theory is not always true (both Moscow and Ukraine had Big Macs, for instance), but generally modern nations that do a lot of trade together do not go to war. The price becomes very high for both sides. The avenues of communication that make free trade possible also make for easier diplomacy when conflicts arise.

Conversely, trade wars and economic sanctions have a nasty tendency to spill over into real, shooting wars. That is exactly what populists claim they would like to avoid. If that is really the case and they desire that America and other nations be at peace, they ought to prove it: Cool the trade war talk, attack our country’s inflexible rules that hold American workers down, and give trade a chance. Courtesy – The Washington Times