India’s economic outlook has weakened again, with worst-case scenario forecasts suggesting the toll from the coronavirus pandemic could be much deeper, stoking fears the job crisis may worsen over the coming year. Renewed restrictions to curb the current coronavirus wave have stalled economic activity, leaving many millions out of work and pushing economists – who have broadly been bullish – to downgrade their views for the second time since early April, a Reuters poll found. The May 20-27 poll showed the outlook for the current quarter was lowered to 21.6% annually, and to 9.8% on average for this fiscal year, down from 23.0% and 10.4% respectively a month ago. All 29 economists, in response to an additional question, warned the outlook was either “weak and prone to further downgrades” or “fragile, with a limited downside”. None expected a “strong recovery, followed by an upgrade”. Underscoring concerns that a slow vaccine rollout may make a bigger dent in the economy, the consensus showed in a worst-case scenario.
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