Daily Times

The US is back and wants everyone and their cat to know it. However, President Biden doesn’t want to go it alone and is telling anyone who will listen that all democracies must stand together. And while this is likely meant to draw a firm line under the Trump era of unilateralism, it has caused unease. Particularly, in this neck of the woods which is still reeling from the aftershock of standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the world’s lone superpower.

Except that Beijing is now vying for that crown. No matter, Washington will not go down without a fight. It said as much this week, when US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin directed the Pentagon to sharpen its focus on China. On paper, not much has changed since George W Bush named the country a strategic competitor. But that was more than 20 years ago and the geo-strategic landscape has shifted dramatically out of American favour. And poor old Washington only has itself to blame. For while it was busy taking the battleground to Al Qaeda and starting a war of aggression in Iraq and igniting the Libyan tinderbox and internationalising the Syrian civil war — China was simply siting back and continuing its peaceful rise. Hard cheese.

It seems the US has finally grasped that it has arrived late to its own party. After all, back in February, Biden established a Defence Department task force on China after Trump seemingly dropped the ball on this front. Alarmingly, part of Austin’s directive, which remains largely classified, focuses on “emerging capabilities, future force posture, and a modernised civilian and military workforce”.

What does this mean for China’s backyard?

As Daily Times has previously noted, the US expects civil war to break out in Afghanistan but isn’t going to do anything about it — despite all the big talk of establishing military bases to monitor the spoils of its 20-year-long war. For the spotlight is not flickering on Kabul but rather Beijing. Yet China isn’t a gatecrasher to this region. It has carefully, some might say craftily, built up alliances. Namely, with Pakistan and Russia. Though there are murmurings of bringing Iran and Afghanistan into the BRI (Belt, Road Initiative) which means CPEC. Thereby all but removing the hold that Washington once had over this region.

The Americans had better tread carefully. For any moves to destabilise this region would backfire enormously. Not least because it would involve five nuclear powers, including Moscow. This is not to mention a potent ISIS making a return to Afghanistan or reports of a resurgent Taliban-Al Qaeda nexus in that country. Elsewhere, it remains doubtful whether the US would even be able to count on India in the long-term since Delhi can’t check out of the region. And if CPEC were to move beyond the bilateral, this would benefit New Delhi; claims of the Corridor running through disputed territory notwithstanding.

To be sure, China is winning the strategic competition. And it has done so by splashing the cash and tying nations to its purse strings. Some 130 of them to be precise and all for the cut-price cost of up to $8 trillion as compared to the $2.26 trillion the US has blown on Afghanistan. Washington should sit down and do the maths. *