Daily Times

P5+1 nuclear agreement that heralded a much-needed thaw in the relations of Iran with the western world and the United States is full of lessons and portents for countries like Pakistan. As per the nuclear disarmament deal, Iran would dismantle all centrifuges except 6043, mostly at the Natanz nuclear facility, allowing only 5,000 centrifuges to spin in order to allow uranium enrichment till 3.67 percent, well below the bomb grade. Similarly, Iran’s nuclear reactors at Fordow have to go out of business for next 15 years. The nuclear abstemiousness as per the deal would cover a period spanning 10 years. The ‘breakout’ time, which is the time required to develop a bomb from the present state, would be extended to one year.

As recompense, however, all nuclear related sanctions would be lifted, allowing much needed breathing space to Iranian economy. It is an apparent win-win deal for all stakeholders, including Obama administration and the Iranian leadership, except, of course, Israel and its affiliated advocacy groups and lobbies like the AIPAC in the USA. The deal brings to fruition the hectic diplomatic attempts by Obama administration and the Iranian leadership. The doves led by Barack Obama had taken the sagacious advice of Iran experts like Vali Nasr, and executed a diplomatic maneuver that fortified the security interests of Iran and other regional countries. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and his supporters in Congress, Senate and other power corridors hemmed and hawed obtruding all manner of obstacles on the smooth execution of the deal, but the tenacity of the prescient leadership prevailed over the paranoid sceptics.

Though the deal bodes well for the regional and global non-proliferation efforts of the international community, it does disturb the power entropy in the Middle East where a fearful Saudi Arabia with its GCC acolytes views the end of Iranian international isolation as an existential threat. The oil politics and demands have trumped nuclear proliferation paranoia so far, and the credit goes to the Iranian leadership for playing a deft hand in the shuffling deck of security alignments in the region along with assuaging of the international community. The oil hungry European and Chinese economies must have heaved a collective sigh of relief after the deal that promises smooth flow of Iranian oil and gas. There are lessons galore for countries like Pakistan as a “nuclear noblesse oblige” towards a paranoid international community.

An analysis of the Iranian disarmament odyssey would yield some very important lessons for a country like Pakistan. The first lesson in the realm of international relations is the importance of charting a balanced course while forging inter-state alliances and projecting influence abroad. A propensity to punch above one’s weight was an Achilles’ heel of the Iranians who realised the limits of their power and the vulnerability of projecting power from a base with exploitable vulnerabilities rather late in the day. Had the ideologically driven interventionism been tempered with interest driven interactions with regional and global powers, the Iranians might have escaped the world ire in the shape of sanctions, sabotage and possible military action.

The need for an interest based external balancing through foreign policy along with an effective internal balancing in the shape of economic resilience emerges paramount for nations such as Iran and Pakistan. External balancing avoids diplomatic isolation while internal balancing imparts resilience against nuclear blackmail. Had Iran cultivated strategic relationship with one of the P5 countries like Russia or China it would have escaped the sanctions through veto of its veto-wielding ally. Iranian diplomacy in the days of hardliners like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had not worked to the advantage of a “revolution exporting” nation that was viewed with suspicion by even potential allies like China and Russia. The lesson for a country like Pakistan is the need for a balanced foreign policy aimed at securing cooperation instead of confrontation with all regional and global powers. A strategic relationship with a regional power such as China that wields veto power in the UN emerges as a strong insurance for Pakistan against international coercion on nuclear issue.

Another important lesson is the need for a thorough analysis before tying oneself up in the international arms control and disarmament regime. Iran became a fair target for UN sanctions on account of her violation of NPT as a signatory. Though Shah of Iran had clear nuclear ambitions and pretensions as a major regional power still Iran failed to discern the future implications of the treaty on her nuclear ambitions. Pakistan should also weigh all pros and cons before signing treaties like the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, Fissile Material Cut off Treaty and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. If the national interest does not permit signing of the above treaties, Pakistan must adhere to a principled stance morally and legally congruent to the sensibilities of international community.

The need to secure the human and material assets critical to nuclear infrastructure retains primacy for a country under acute external surveillance and nuclear espionage. The safety, indoctrination and monitoring of the vital human resource is a must as was proved by the Iranian example where assassinations, kidnappings and inducements blew the whistle on Iranian nuclear weapon development programmes besides retarding its progress. The physical protection of the assets against a military strike as well as cyber attacks should be the top priority. The Iranian scientists’ laxity while updating the computer programmes of the Programmable Logic Units at Natanz should be a constant reminder of the dangers inherent in computer based controls and operations.

While culling above lessons for Pakistan an advice for Iran would be to tread ever more carefully after the deal so as not to appear emboldened enough to start a deadly minuet of their proxies dance in the big conflict zone that the Middle East has become in the recent past. Pakistan similarly needs to tread carefully in the emerging regional scenario so as not to squander nuclear advantage through stoking fears amongst its potential allies. Indo-Afghan-Iran confabulations on Chabahar and overland route to Central Asia thus should not be viewed as threats but opportunities to achieve economic synergies with our own China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Shrewd diplomacy leveraging indigenous competitive advantages of geo-politics and geo economics along with an adroit nuclear policy formulation are the two major lessons that could only be ignored at our peril in these turbulent times.

The writer is a PhD scholar at NUST, and he can be reached at rwjanj@hotmail.com