Daily Times

Allow me to recollect memories of March 1980 as a young infantry officer located at Nawa Pass, Bajur Agency on borders with Afghanistan. The erstwhile USSR MI24 gunship helicopters would frequently cross over Durand Line uninterrupted while chasing Afghan refugees’ columns crossing over to Pakistan. The columns would consist of women, children, old aged men and a few cattle carrying household items in deplorable conditions. We would occasionally provide them with medical treatment and food at crossing routes, if necessary. Pakistan Army had the instructions to resist opening up fire on these helicopters unless it maneuvers into hostile action against our defences. It was then unimaginable predicting series of historical events like breakaway of USSR within a decade, Afghanistan turning into a graveyard of Soviet Union soldiers and as a bloody battlefield for strategic interests of superpowers through next half a century.

The withdrawal of UStroops from Afghanistan has significant implications for the sputtering Afghan peace process like that of the Middle East. The Taliban’s own perceived victory could embolden them in future negotiations and the next few years will be critical specially for the Af-Pak region as Washington has long viewed the region through the lens of conflict in Afghanistan. For several decades, the United States did not institutionalise a truly regional foreign policy for South Asia. Instead, it approaches the region through a few silos: the war in Afghanistan, the relationship with Pakistan, and the US-India partnership. Other South Asian states have not figured out conspicuously in US strategic thinking. With USforces on their way out, soon a new frame of reference is likely to dominate US thinking on South Asia, China, and specifically the US-China rivalry.

For decades, the US did not institutionalise a truly regional foreign policy for South Asia. Even now, it approaches the region through a few silos: the war in Afghanistan, the relationship with Pakistan, and the US-India partnership. Other South Asian states have not figured out conspicuously in US strategic thinking

The United States doesn’t conceive of South Asia as a single separate region as the State Department’s South Asia regional bureau also includes Central Asia with it. Furthermore, the two military commands of Pentagon split the South Asian region down the middle: Central Command oversees area up to and including Pakistan and Indo-Pacific Command oversees the region including India and beyond. This geographically limited approach to South Asia is misguided, given the geostrategic significance of the region as it holds one-quarter of the world’s population and lies astride the Indian Ocean.

The Biden administration has continued the silo approach closely focusing on Afghanistan but largely ignored the rest of the region. However, the coming US.exit from Afghanistan means that China will soon take centre stage in USstrategic calculations approaching South Asia through the lens of US – China rivalry. China’s deepening footprint in the region, fuelled by the expansion of its Belt and Road Initiative, means that smaller South Asian states will increasingly appear on the US strategic radar. India, Washington’s best bet in South Asia to counterbalance Beijing, will remain a top priority for US policy makers. Biden’s declaration reflects Washington’s strategic fatigue in Middle East-Afghanistan regions. Surprisingly, his Afghan exit policy does not feature a well conceived negotiated political settlement between the Kabul administration and the Taliban, creating waves of uncertainty, whether the country will once again descend into chaos.

The decision to exit from Afghanistan shocked many as an annual US intelligence community’s assessment released earlier has a grim outlook for Afghanistan. When foreign forces leave, do we have to fear a return of the late 1990’s regressive rule of Islamic militia? The Taliban is likely to make gains on the battlefield, and the Afghan government will struggle to hold the Taliban at bay if the coalition is withdrawn. Many Afghans fear Taliban will return to power in Kabul, taking precedence from the past history. Where does this leave the Ghani-led Kabul government? Ghani in the present situation, seems increasingly isolated. Contrarily, Taliban may be ‘winning’, but Afghanistan and its people will continue losing in absence of dedicated investment in peace.

While Taliban fighters are celebrating the US exit as a victory of mujahideen and defeat of occupying forces, the political wing realises that Islamic militia’s previous form of rule is no longer viable. The Taliban are divided into mainly three groups; an ultra-conservative Shura, the Doha based political delegation, its moderates engaging with the diplomats of world powers, and the fighters on Afghan soil. Its fighters wish to see Afghanistan as Islamic Emirates in line with Mullah Omer’s vision, whereas the moderates are showing flexibility to enable girls’ education and ensuring minority rights.

However, uncertainty about the future dominates most conversations on Afghanistan. The Taliban will make major advances, perhaps capture some more cities, but cannot seize comprehensive control altogether. Consequently a worsening civil war scenario is the most likely consequence.

Afghanistan has a history of internal strife from the time it transitioned from a kingdom to a republic. Kabul still has the ruins reflecting the power struggle between so-called Mujahideen after the Soviets withdrew. The clock is now ticking on Afghanistan with fears of another conflict brewing. The US may have declared its “Operation Enduring Freedom” a success, but Afghans are yet to experience enduring freedom in their personal lives.

I shall prefer toning down the statement of General Hamid Gul to a certain scale but don’t rule it out completely. “When history is written, it will be stated that the I.S.I. defeated the Soviet Union in Afghanistan with the help of America. Then there will be another sentence, the I.S.I., with the help of America, defeated America”. The reality is a bit different. Afghanistan is still a war torn poverty stricken country with masses struggling for basic amenities of life. But USA continues as the singular military might of the universe.

From the hindsight, we may conclude that last fifty years or so has experienced two epoch making events of ‘the new great game’. The first one was breakaway of erstwhile USSR through Afghanistan from 1970s – 1989. The second one aimed at crippling Middle East to eliminate all kind of military threats (conceptually) to Greater Israel from 1991 – 2020. Afghanistan figured out prominently in both the phases. Motivated by gradually intensifying rivalry with China, the Biden administration is expected to pursue deeper ties with Pakistan. The old adage, to remain relevant to USA and keep USA involved in the region still holds valid as foreign policy option for Pakistan. The decision by Biden is a bold one, but it is also a big gamble.

The writer is a retired Pakistan army officer