Daily Times

At a critical moment during the thirteen-day Cuban Missile Crisis back of October 1962, some 22 Soviet missile-carrying ships heading for Cuba reversed course. Thereby effectively pulling the US and the USSR back from the brink of nuclear war and prompting then secretary of State Dean Rusk to famously observe: “I think the other side just blinked.”

Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin did more than blink. He stumbled.

Moscow named and ranked a list of so-called “unfriendly countries”, although Kremlin sources say this has yet to be confirmed and that information was leaked. Nevertheless, the US comes in at first place while Britain, Canada and Australia count among other western nations. More significant, though, is that the rest of the ‘condemned’ are located in Russia’s backyard. These include five former Soviet republics: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Georgia and Ukraine, all of which share land borders with Moscow. As well former Warsaw Pact members Poland and the Czech Republic. NATO member Bulgaria, long seen to be tilting towards Moscow, fell foul of the Russian Bear when it expelled two Russian diplomas back in March on charges of espionage and, more recently, another Russian diplomat in connection with explosions at arms depots in the country.

Thus, whether it realises it or not, Russia appears to be treading the path of isolation. It is time for these so-called unfriendly states join hands to exploit Putin’s misstep.

The traditional Russian playbook, purloined from Lenin, relies on “active measures” – short of direct military force – to advance Moscow’s interests while dividing and sowing the seeds of chaos in the West and target states. Among these measures are: waging crude and sophisticated disinformation campaigns on social media; conducting cyber-attacks and espionage penetration such as the hacking of SolarWind; military intimidation, including the recent build-up (and subsequent drawdown) of some 80,000 troops along the eastern border with Ukraine as well as showcasing latest arms procurements; economic and energy leverage; and, of course, the occasional assassination attempt.

Those living in Russia’s backyard should come together informally to further consolidate Moscow’s isolation within its own sphere of influence. The priority must be to not only counter but also reverse engineer Moscow’s ‘active measures’

So, what is to be done?

The ‘unfriendlies’ living in Russia’s backyard, with or without Bulgaria, should come together informally to further consolidate Moscow’s isolation within its own sphere of influence. The priority must be to not only counter but also reverse engineer these active measures. This all the more urgent given NATO and the West’s resounding failure to do this, despite the Alliance spending a collective $1.03 trillion on defence last year (as opposed to Russia’s more modest $61.7 billion).

How would this work?

First, those on the Russian backlist ought to concentrate on their respective regions. This would mean the Baltic states and Poland setting their sights on St Petersburg to the east and the Kaliningrad enclave to the west. All the while highlighting how their respective socio-economic triumphs contrast sharply with what is happening on the Russian home front; still marred by low longevity, corruption and wealth disparities. A good starting place in terms of countering disinformation would be referring Kaliningrad by its original name of Konigsberg.

Second, the remaining “unfriendly countries” ought to take note of how Russia Today, the state-owned international television network, reports on what it sees as the West’s weaknesses and flaws. These nations therefore need to harness print, electronic and digital media, including social, media, and target Russia in a similar way. Indeed, they may look to the now defunct US European Command (EUCOM)-sponsored Southeast European Times news website that was established to oppose disinformation. Towards this end, a rejuvenated and expanded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty network, the US government-funded broadcaster, could transmit from these states to challenge Russian propaganda. A timely move given that the Kremlin looks set to shut down the RFE Moscow bureau.

Naturally, Putin remains the strategic centre of gravity. With Russian presidential elections earmarked for March 2024, the strongman’s popularity is undoubtedly not what it once was. Thus, an onslaught of truth attacks will hardly be in his best interests. The best case scenario would be for both sides to de-escalate and for Russia to cease and desist it active measures.

In an ideal world, NATO would be best placed to take the lead on this front. But an Alliance that has its origins in deterring the military threat of the then Soviet Union is now confronted by an even more aggressive Russia. Meaning that it already is overstretched and has no resources left to engage in psychological warfare.

The Biden administration has a special coordinator for Asia and China on its National Security Council staff. This post needs to be replicated for NATO and Europe. And the priority must be to organise a coalition of the willing and “unfriendly” with a mission to ensure that Putin not only stumbles but trips.

Dr Harlan Ullman is UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave Distinguished Columnist and Senior Advisor at Washington, DC’s Atlantic Council. His latest book is ‘The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Threat to a Divided Nation and the World at Large’