Daily Times

China and India got independence within one year of each other. India managed to get what it wanted from the outgoing British Empire, except one-third of Kashmir which was liberated by the locals with the help of Pakistani Lashkars. On other hand, mainland China was deprived of Macao, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Moreover, India got Arunachal Pradesh also which is claimed by China.

But where do they stand after over seven decades since independence vis a vis each other in terms of stature, development, and prosperity. Reason: Divergent Strategic Concepts.

India adopted the strategy of confrontation with Pakistan to snatch that one-third part of Kashmir which was not with India, concurrently denied the rights of self-determination to that two-third part of Kashmir which it had occupied by force. For the purpose, India had wars, conflicts, and crises with Pakistan, but could not achieve its stated objectives.

China, on the other hand, decided to wait for an opportune time to regain its lost territories through peaceful rise. Today, Macao and Hong Kong are part of China, under ‘One Country-Two Systems’ and it believes that one day Taiwan and Arunachal Pradesh will also be part of mainland China, without going to war with any of its adversaries.

China, on the other hand, decided to wait for an opportune time to regain its lost territories through peaceful rise. Today, Macao and Hong Kong are part of China, under ‘One Country-Two Systems’ and it believes that one day Taiwan and Arunachal Pradesh will also be part of mainland China, without going to war with any of its adversaries

India’s strategy of confrontation with its five times smaller neighbour has pulled it down to the status of a mediocre state, which had at one time aspired to be a regional power with eyes on the status of a global power in future. Indian Ocean was to be its zone of influence and Pakistan would be converted into a pliant state, as has been the case with Bangladesh and other smaller states in the South Asian region. Shining India, and Rising India narratives developed some two decades ago are being questioned by sane Indian elements because the hardline Hindutva philosophy adopted by India’s BJP government has pushed it back from a secular state to a Hindu state. India spent billions of dollars in its hybrid over on Pakistan in last 15 years, as revealed by European Union’s DisInfoLab through Indian Chronicles.

Today, India is vying for a meaningful role in Afghanistan so that it can keep Pakistan encircled and hence under pressure with the help of outgoing US and NATO. However, India is failing in its efforts because Afghans understand that their problem can best be solved by regional states and not the extra-regional powers.

China, despite disputes with its neighbouring countries over South China Sea, is marching on its path of peaceful rise to the status of a global power. Long before, China had stopped considering India as a competitor, lest a rival. China would overtake United States as the world’s largest economy by 2028, well before the earlier estimates. China’s defense spending has been steadily rising and in 2021 would cross over 200 billion USD, which is nearly 7% more than the previous year. Most importantly, China’s preparations are for the future challenges, because it is not militarily occupied on any large front. China’s venture in Ladakh with India is hardly considered a military engagement in its larger canvass.

India, on the other hand, is permanently engaged with Pakistan militarily along its 3320 km long border from Siachen to Sir Creek. India must understand that it cannot cow down Pakistan in any sector in land warfare, and in the air warfare, Indian Air Force is aware of Pakistan Air Force’s professional mastery.

Limited vision of successive Indian leaders has cost India a legitimate leadership role in South Asia and Indian Ocean region. Soon after independence, India should have resolved its disputes with Pakistan and concentrated on its development to challenge for leadership role in the region. Instead of fighting wars with Pakistan, India should have challenged China’s rise. Now and in any foreseeable future, India can only beat China in population figures.

India does not have much time now. If India wants to regain its lost glory, it must resolve all its disputes with Pakistan, including J&K, only then it will be able to concentrate on its rise as a regional power.

My idea of hybrid peace is perhaps more suited to India than any other state in the region. However, my Indian friends take my quest for peace as a sign of weakness and therefore do not pay due attention to my advice. I have no issue with India continuing with the strategy of confrontation with Pakistan and remain a mediocre state and maintaining itself at a level far below its true potential.

However, I must say ‘Well Done China’ for following Sun Tzu’s dictum of ‘winning the war without fighting.’ I must also say ‘Well Played Pakistan for keeping India Engaged and giving a Free Hit to China.’

Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi is the author of the book ‘Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan’ published by Peter Lang, New York