Daily Times

In the post-Cold war era, while the US emerged as the only world’s only superpower, Russia had quickly consolidated its position as a leading military power. While China focused on economic development based on reforms initiated in 1979 — it also started building economic and technological ties with the US and the EU.

Since 2001, the US has been fighting the global War on Terror in Afghanistan while also managing its military interventions in the civil war conflicts in the Middle East. Meanwhile, China’s economic advancement has been gathering rapid pace. Hence, as of 2020, China was fast on it way to becoming a global economic and technological hub, second only to the US.

Also, China has resolved its major border dispute with Russia and signed agreements of strategic partnership and major oil and gas pipelines deals with Moscow. China has also developed voluminous investment and trade relations with Japan, India, and South Korea. Since 2014, China has signed heavy infrastructure-related investment agreements with the CARs (Central Asian Republics), ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations), South Asia, the Middle East, African countries as well as Iran and Europe.

In 2014, China inked the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) agreement with Pakistan, the cornerstone of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) mega-project. Recently, China has vowed to build close politico-economic relations with the Gulf countries and recently signed a 25-year strategic partnership agreement of with Iran, involving the import of oil and gas and the construction of major infrastructure projects.

Based on China’s recent consolidation of relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran, and Biden’s decision to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal — Saudi Arabia and the UAE are seeking to further strengthen their relations with Pakistan

From 2000-2020, whereas Russia had strengthened its oil- and gas-supported economy, it had also resisted EU and NATO eastward expansion, including the tilt towards the CARs, and defended its interests in the Middle East, particularly in Syria through military intervention. Simultaneously, Russia has developed good relations with China, India, Pakistan and also with EU countries by signing gas pipeline construction deals with Germany and Eastern European countries, as well as with Turkey and Iran.

While fighting in Afghanistan, whereas, the US, in the initial years, praised Pakistan’s performance as a non-NATO ally, later it repeatedly asked the country to do more. Perceiving India as its strategic ally for the 21st century to contain China’s rise, Washington welcomed India’s economic investment in Afghanistan, which New Delhi exploited to sponsor terrorism in Pakistan.

To secure Indian support against China, the US entered into the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement, which came into force in 2008. Later in 2010, came the broad spectrum strategic partnership pact. India also became a part of the US Indo-Pacific strategy and was declared a close defence partner of the US. When President Trump declared China an enemy country in 2020, India also joined the QUAD Group (alongside the US, Japan and Australia), a potential anti-China military alliance. But, despite these agreements with the US, India has also maintained its strategic partnership with Russia as well as heavy trade relations with China.

In the meantime, Pakistan consolidated relations with China, Turkey, the Gulf countries, Iran, Russia and the CARs. In 2014, while Pakistan signed the CPEC agreement with China, it also signed a gas pipeline construction deal with Russia. Pakistan also continued to further strengthen its economic and defence relations with the US and EU powers.

In 2020, Pakistan facilitated the US-Taliban talks, to end the stalemated and long Afghan war. This culminated in the US and the Taliban signing an agreement on February 20, 2020; under which US troops would withdraw from Afghanistan by 1 May 202, though this deadline has since been pushed forward. Seeing the Taliban’s resilience in fighting the war and their ability to defeat ISIS — Iran, Pakistan, the CARs, Russia and China also accepted the group as major stakeholder in Afghanistan and the broader region.

In view of Pakistan’s expertise and success in fighting terrorism, Iran, the CARs and Russia have also started strengthening their relations with Pakistan. And due to India’s negative role in the region, while the US has ignored it during talks with the Taliban the world’s media condemned New Delhi’s unilateral annexation of Occupied Kashmir in August 2019 and the UNSC permanent members asked India to resolve the Kashmir dispute with Pakistan through talks.

As President Biden has announced on September 11, 2021 as the final date for complete and unconditional US and NATO troop withdrawal, to facilitate this and retain American influence in Afghanistan in the future — US Secretary of State Blinken has spoken to COAS, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa to seek Pakistan’s assistance. Russia’s foreign minister also visited Pakistan at the beginning of April to strengthen bilateral ties despite India’s opposition.

Also, based on China’s recent consolidation of relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran, and Biden’s decision to rejoin the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are seeking to further strengthen their relations with Pakistan. Indeed, the Saudi crown prince has already invited Prime Minister Imran Khan to visit Saudi Arabia and Pakistan-UAE foreign ministers have recently met frequently.

The above discussed geopolitical and economic scenario, suggests that Pakistan has the following foreign policy options to advance its relations with various countries without any major constraints. Pakistan should endeavour to make intra-Afghan dialogue a success to stabilise Afghanistan and connect CPEC with the CARS. While Pakistan should further cement its CPEC-based strategic partnership with China, it should also build economic, technological and defence relations with Russia. Pakistan should also advance its economic and defence ties with Turkey, Gulf countries, Iran, Egypt, CARs, SAARC countries, Malaysia and Indonesia.

At the same time, as the US and EU need Pakistan for peace and future influence in Afghanistan and the Muslim world, Islamabad should also strengthen s economic and defence relations with these countries as well as Japan and South Korea. And, Pakistan should also be ready to develop good relations even with India, provided that it reverse its policy in -held Kashmir and is willing to resolve the Kashmir dispute, through a dialogue with Pakistan, based on the UNSC resolutions on Kashmir.

The writer is a former Research Fellow of IPRI and Senior Research Fellow of SVI Islamabad