Daily Times

The establishment believes that absolute power should be neither vested in the PTI government nor the opposition. It should only rest with them. A fragmented PDM (Pakistan Democratic Movement) strengthened Prime Minister Imran Khan and the ruling party. Thus the plan had always been to first break the opposition alliance and then turn attention to cracks at the Centre. With the PPP now officially out of the PDM, the second part of the great game can begin.

As regards PTI’s fate, the members brought into the fold by Jahangir Tareen will gather round him once again. This is particularly true of lawmakers from Southern Punjab who have not forgotten the dream of a separate province. Thus the ruling party will be home to competing ‘fiefdoms’: the Tareen group, the Imran Khan group and the Akbar S Babar group. New political arrangements are being finalised. Another political jigsaw puzzle is in the making.

To be clear, there would never have been an Imran Khan-led government had it not been for Jahangir Tareen. He made the impossible possible for the powers-that-be. How else was the politically inexperienced Khan able to rally support from enough parliamentarians to hold the Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and even the Centre? Since 2018, despite being on the same page as the judiciary and the military establishment, the Prime Minister has been unable to steer either his own party or the nation to safe harbour. Today, Pakistan suffers from both political and economic instability.

The FIA (Federal Investigation Agency) last week summoned Tareen and his son on charges of corporate fraud and money laundering. The pair have now submitted their replies. Despite this, the elder Tareen is said to be exploring other options in order to stay relevant in the current political scenario.

It appears that the next government will comprise the Jahangir Tareen faction of the PTI, the PPP and PMLQ

Rumours of an imminent meeting between Tareen and PPP co-Chairman Asif Ali Zardari refuse to go away; no matter how many times the former PTI secretary general denies the claims. Nevertheless, Tareen is expected to lead a large group of Punjab Assembly parliamentarians to join hands with the PPP to strike this province first. If this happens, both Prime Minster Imran Khan and Chief Minister Usman Buzdar will be sent packing. Tareen has already held talks with the PPP’s Ahmed Mahmood, a former Governor Punjab and business associate, towards this end. Even prior to this development, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Zardari senior had been very clear about the need to take the Punjab before tackling the Centre. Thus the PPP, with one eye on the next general elections, is looking towards political heavyweights like Tareen.

Interestingly, the propaganda campaign against Jahangir Tareen is being waged by the current government, not the opposition. The rivalry between Tareen and party vice chairman, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, is well known. Yet the PTI’s position is not secure and some important political players from within its ranks will not think twice before jumping a sinking ship. Tareen, for his part, feels betrayed by his erstwhile friend, Imran Khan. He knows full well that the FIA could not act against him without the latter’s approval. That he has the support of a large number of provincial and federal lawmakers means that can play his cards carefully. Moreover, if the foreign funding case against the PTI regarding the question of illegally sourced funding, is decided this year — it will be the last nail in the coffin for the Imran Khan government.

Elsewhere, the departure of Hafeez Sheikh as Finance minster has paved the way for the return of Shaukat Tareen in the role of aide to the PM on Finance and Revenue. This is a striking turn of evens. After all, Shaukat Tareen has, from the moment this government swept into power, been vocally critical of Imran Khan’s economic vision and policies. Therefore the following must be asked: who selected Shaukat Tareen and whose line is he following?

The PLMN, due to its anti-establishment stance as well as PTI’s poor performance, is regaining popularity in both the Punjab and KPK. It would likely secure the former. Yet none of this will be possible unless the PMLN makes peace with the establishment and overcomes the trust deficit that exists between the two sides. It will not be easy. Keeping this in mind, it appears that the next government will comprise the Jahangir Tareen faction of the PTI, the PPP and PMLQ. The fact that some 29 lawmakers from the ruling party attended a recent dinner hosted by Tahreen underscores that the latter still has muscles to flex. Although the same cannot be said for Economics Affairs Minister Khusro Bakhtiar, or his brothers, all of whom will be next in the line of fire.

After making use of electables for the last three years, Imran Khan now wants to take ‘revenge’ on a sugar mafia who are known for millions yet have only contributed peanuts to party funds. All this is being done in the name of ant-corruption. This is exactly what happened to the former KPK minister for Mines and Mineral Development, Ziaullah Afridi who landed in jail for not sharing a piece of the pie with the PM.

Change is not coming. It has already come.

The writer is a political analyst and author of several books. He can be reached at naveedamankhan.com