Daily Times

The third wave of Covid-19 will be the only major risk to investors’ confidence at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) this week amid strengthening rupee, stable external position and world stocks marking a record high in the entire history of global financial trading.

The PSX is likely to have range-bound sessions during the week, keeping the last week scenario in mind where market supported in most of the sessions, except for Monday session that cost PSX over 1,000 points. The benchmark KSE-100 Index plunged by 1220.68 points (-2.68 percent) during the departed week and settled at 44,300.95-mark as compared to the preceding week’s closing of 45,521.63 points.

The market went down last week despite positive pieces of news on the economic front including higher than anticipated tax collection, highest monthly exports in the last 10 years in March, and jump in forex reserves on IMF inflows.

The last week saw bears return to the forefront as the market sentiment was in severe pressure. Changes in the cabinet including that of finance minister, announcement by ECC and subsequent rejection of the decision by the cabinet to resume trade with India, and the ongoing third wave of Covid-19 all contributed to the pessimism in the market. Failure to meet the deadline for the first tranche payment to IPPs further added to the overall pessimism. However, this is past for the market now.

The successful issuance of the USD denominated Eurobonds in international markets that raised USD 2.5 billion and other positive development can support the market from any further falling if the Covid-19 situation does not wreak much havoc.

The figures released by National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited (NCCPL) showed that foreigners sold $4.93 million worth of stocks during the week with foreign corporates doing the bulk of selling amounting to $3.94 million. On the local front, major buying was reported by insurance companies ($6.79 million) and individual investors ($5.39 million). Other significant transactions included $11.40 million and $5.48 million worth of stocks sold by mutual funds and brokers respectively.

As the total price of shares on the world’s stock markets has reportedly pushed past $106 trillion, marking a record high in the entire history of global financial trading, it is expected that foreigners may return back to PSX this week amid relatively strong national fundamentals. Again, the upcoming results season can attract bulls particularly amongst cyclical sectors.

The benchmark KSE-100 index of Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) is currently trading at a PER of 6.6x (2021) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 17.1x and while offering DY of around 7.1 percent versus around 2.5 percent offered by the region.

Last week, the sector-wise negative contributions came from technology & communication, 341 points; commercial banks, 164 points; oil & gas exploration companies, 147 points; cement, 144 points; and power generation and distribution, 117 points. It is most likely that these stocks will perform better this week as cement despatches remained highest in March, the Power Division has again moved a summary to the Economic Coordination Committee regarding release of payments to independent power plants (IPPs), and oil prices are going upward due to limited increase in crude output in coming months. Likewise, technology and bank stocks lost much previous week and are expected to gain buyers’ attention.