Daily Times

Syeda Raza-e-Masooma

In simple terms Brexit is ‘Britain’ plus ‘exit’. It’s the idea that the Brits may vote to leave the European Union (EU). Today, almost 46.5 million people are expected to decide the future course for Britain in a historic referendum.

From a commercial and economic point of view it is considered better if Britain continues to remain part of EU but the ‘social bits’ or the rules and regulations that come with being part of EU are not acceptable to many Brits.

The point to note is that Brexit is not only a matter of concern for Brits. For instance, it is important for other European nations because a major proportion of intra-EU trade is related with Britain. Almost half of United Kingdom’s (UK) exports go to EU and more than half of its imports come from rest of the Union. (To clear the confusion between interchangeably used Britain and UK, Britain is the Island comprising England, Scotland and Wales, while UK includes Britain and Northern Ireland. EU is comprised of 28 countries and represents half a billion people).

Coming back to why is this issue important for non-Brits too, for North-Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) countries this is significant because Britain is second only to United States in military spending and because it is not wary about showing off its military grandeur either. If Britain leaves, that will make EU a less powerful ally for NATO countries and it will not be a good thing from their perspective. For US, the unravelling of the union which also happens to be an important ally, will only lead to more instability. UK is US’s seventh largest trading partner and instability in the region will also affect US economically.

For all other nations, it might still have spill over effects since UK is the fifth largest economy in the world and any such drastic shift in markets and commercial patterns is bound to shake some parts of the global economy possibly resulting in shocks for the rest of the world too.

Despite all the benefits of being part of the union, which include the freedom of citizens of member countries to travel and trade with each other without the fear of any red tape and massive economic savings and benefits of intra-region trade, many Brits seem to be convinced that they would be better off outside such obligations. In is noteworthy that Britain is not the only country where such sentiments are brimming.

Despite being part of a single bloc, the member countries tend to react differently in face of changing world events, such as the issue of refugees coming to their shores, or at times of economic fluctuations such as the issue of coming together to bail out member countries in financial crisis. Some countries have to bear greater burden than others and that leads to the creation of anti-EU parties all across Europe.

Talking about UK specifically, Britain has always kept its separate identity than EU. It doesn’t eve use the same currency as most of other EU members. Furthermore, UK citizens are increasingly becoming irate over the $16.3 billion that UK pays to EU as its membership fee. The Brits who are in favour of leaving EU argue that this amount is too hefty and it can very well be spent in other ways that do not add rules and regulations over Britain’s international policies either.

Another issue that has become bothersome for Brits is the immigration patterns. Since EU citizens can live and work in any member country, most of them flock to UK. Nearly 13 per cent of the UK’s population are people from other countries. The supporters of leaving EU believe that higher immigration puts strain on education and healthcare, keeps wages low and also put locals out of work. They believe that Brexit will allow UK to decide economic and foreign policies without any restriction imposed by EU rules.

What will happen if Brexit happens?

If Brits do vote to leave EU, the immediate effect is expected to be a harsh one. A recession might follow as well.  The pound is also expected to lose considerable value, at least for the short-term. Most drastically, the Prime Minister David Cameron will probably be de-seated since he is favouring staying in the EU.

Now, will the referendum pass or not is only for the time to tell. The Britain population seems to be evenly divided for staying and leaving EU. Scotland and Wales seem to be inclining towards the stay camp while large parts of England want to get rid of EU’s restrictions. There is division even within the same families. A large chunk of the population is also among the ‘fence-sitters’. Hence it remains on time to tell what the future holds for Britain and EU.

The writer is staff member of Daily Times