Daily Times

It is time to bury the past, move forward and put own house in order. This is the logline of general qamar bajwa’s speech at the occasion of Islamabad security dialogue. The message is very pertinent, realistic and pragmatic. To understand the urgency, one need not to be a strategist or an expert in international security acronyms, it is the proverbial writing on the wall. It brings the road meandering towards two things to be explained, one the concept of comprehensive security and other the micro, macro and the political economy of the country and its people.

David Hawkins wrote a book titled “power versus force “which explained that power is like gravity, permanent, while force is temporary, always diminishing and requires counter force. Therefore, the power (Allah almighty) is running the universe with the interplay of different forces. This book deals with psychology and human behavior determinists, but is perfect chicken soup to understand the limits of humans to strategize. Since centuries humans through force tried and did subjugate other humans, their resources, and the chattel till the dawn of 21st century when the race is to subjugate and conquer the global commons. In retaliation the counter force has raised the temperature by two degrees Celsius, melted the glaciers and the polar ice cap, set the environment right for pandemics and turned upside down the world system theory by blurring the lines between core and peripheries.

The balance in the polarity of the world is gone forever. Only thing rampant is the phenomenon of inequality. Last three Nobel prizes have gone to those who raised the voice against inequality as the biggest threat to human security. So generalissimo’s advice to put house in order is timely and worth giving a jab. But before going there, let us dwell a bit on traditional and non-traditional security. Traditional security deals with the conventional threats by the visible enemy till the doctrinal meltdown is reached and the enemy become invisible. Non-traditional security therefore deals in the climate change, terrorism, ethnocentricity, cyber threats, pandemics, technological disruptions, food security, nuclear meltdowns/broken arrows and spread of inequality with in a society. The strategic elite of the country is trained, fostered and rightly poised to deal with the security threat to the country.

Throughout modern human history three surpluses has defined the power of a nation till the discovery of oil, these were, sugar plantations, cotton fields and the rubber plantations

A nation’s traditions, values, pattern of behavior, habits, symbols and achievements form a motif and mosaic which is called as strategic culture. The strategic culture is further derived from history, geography and the political journey of a nation. So strategic elite being aware of all the nation building, nation forming and nation sustaining elements and sinews is responsible to steer the country and its people out of the traditional and non-traditional threats. Islamabad security dialogue has for the first time at least defined the contours of the strategic elite of Pakistan. Using the word “establishment” is too narrow a word for the strategic decision makers, especially once state is run by the input from all the relevant quarters. Credit goes to Dr Moeed Yousef for correcting the misnomer and rectifying the vocabulary of the play book. The set of non-traditional security threats which can unhinge any state are, climate change, food security, poverty, inequality and water scarcity. Any state can counter the cyber-attack, the hybrid war, the fifth or sixth generation war etc., but fighting the climate change, poverty or inequality etc. requires the grit of the complete nation. Incidentally, for Pakistan all these are linked to agriculture. Seventy percent population of Pakistan is directly and another ten percent are indirectly linked to agriculture. Pakistan is therefore, thoroughly, an agrarian economy.

Its biggest security challenge is the revival of agriculture. The lesson learnt by the advance nations of the world during the covid-19 is very simple and clear, 21st century belongs to countries which are agriculturally much beyond the level of autarky and the countries on the fast track of cutting edge research and development. Examples, china, Germany and Israel leading the curve and japan, USA, Australia and somewhat India following. The R and D eco-system can take some time but the immediate need is to revive agriculture of the country. This is the biggest security challenge of Pakistan and will address the problem of poverty, inequality, ethnicity, disharmony, food security, economic security and a number of under current chasms and fissures which enemies of the country are trying to create for targeting the society. Three endowments are the quint essential, the land, availability of water and the people. Pakistan has abundance of it. UNICEF, executive director has just said that “world water crisis is not coming, it is already here”. On 24th march Pakistani Indus water commissioner is meeting with Indian counterpart in Delhi.

This is the time he should be talking about water inflow in river Chenab and Jhelum alongside praising the sweetmeat of haldi ram or the ram kishan sarees of chandni chowk .Pakistan’s water shortages is getting acute, almost reaching the level of strangulation at the tail ends of all canal commands. Out of 6000 glaciers in northern areas, 2700 are already melted or suffered the glacier bursts. Two rivers are gone to India, with the aquafers drying up. One of the Best arable land of the world, i.e. central Punjab is facing the threat of urbanization through mushroom growth. Cash crop of cotton is failing, a country which used to export cotton just 21 years back, with a huge surplus, is not producing even 50 percent of its own industrial demand. Cotton commissioner is placed under ministry of food, from that of ministry of textile, therefore is unable to collect cotton cess as per cotton cess act of 1923. This has diminished the capability of three research institutes and seven research stations of cotton research in Pakistan. This might result in the cancellation of orders worth millions in the bed linen, towels and apparel category.

Same is true for sugar and wheat, a country which had surpluses is now forced to import from those countries which are not even agrarian economies. As of today India with the same food basket of Punjab and Haryana has a surplus of 190 million tons of wheat, enough to feed the population for two years and the new crop is just on its way. Throughout modern human history three surpluses has defined the power of a nation till the discovery of oil, these were, sugar plantations, cotton fields and the rubber plantations. Biggest threat to Pakistan’s agriculture and its security is the networked formation of cartels and monopolies. The monopoly control authority requires to be augmented further specially after the 18th amendment and its aftermath. Pakistan with its natural endowments is rising power, the untapped minerals, one of the world biggest range land of Baluchistan, the coastal outlay, spread of rare earth metals and the gem stones, these all are the Eldorado waiting for their time, but the strategic compulsion dictates to concentrate first on human security and as a matter of fact it is comprehensively linked to agriculture throughout the length and breadth of the country. John mearsheimer in his famous book” the tragedy of great power politics” has clearly defined that structures dictate the outcomes. Pakistan is not lacking anything, it is just the delineation of structures which will re-align the strategic orientation and will result in the strategic autonomy .Conclusively and getting a leaf from the recent statements of prime minister and General Qamar Bajwa , an olive branch to India is worth giving an offering at the coming Holi.

The writer is a free lance who contributes regularly on security related issues