Daily Times

Perhaps my article “Possibility of Peace versus Probability of War” published by Daily Times, Islamabad on February 24, 2021 was read and understood by the politico-military establishments in New Delhi and Islamabad on the same day. Well, I am so happy to imagine that because the very next day some contacts were made between the two Capitals and Ceasefire Agreement of November 2003 was reestablished.

Unfortunately, some people are passing judgment on the timings and the utility of a mere ceasefire while Kashmir is still burning. They have their own reasons to target the government for its move, however, it is important to understand that each action that may lead to the possibility of peace would help marginalize the probability of war, which is extremely important not for Pakistan but for the people of Kashmir.

Let me reiterate the importance of peace between India and Pakistan for the people of Kashmir. Only if the firing along the Line of Control (LoC) is stopped, like it was done between 2003 to 2006, hundreds of Kashmiri lives would be saved. Likewise, the properties of Kashmiris living along the LoC would be spared from heavy bombardments and their children will be able to go to schools if they are ever opened by the Indian occupying forces.

Indian analyst Sumit Ganguly writes in his latest article published on March 1, 2021 by Foreign Policy, that “War is over between India and Pakistan-for Now” clearly reflects the importance of this small step towards an ultimate peace for the people of Kashmir. It may sound simplistic, but each step taken to ensure that the sufferings of the Kashmiris along the LoC is minimized, must be welcomed with the hope that one day the people of Kashmir would be free to move on the either side of the LoC and these guns would go silent forever.

As we know that each war and conflict is followed by a Peace Treaty or an Agreement and there have been many such agreements between India and Pakistan already, therefore, one must not wait for another event of physical violence between the two nuclear neighbors

I understand the uneasiness among some analysts who think that this government does not understand the psyche of the Indians and they must not engage with Indian establishments unless the situation in the Vale improves. I think we need to understand that the situation in the Vale would never improve unless Pakistan engages India on all forums; bilaterally as well as multilaterally. Remember, India does not consider Pakistan a fair neighbor and has historical animosity primarily due to the unresolved dispute over Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Therefore, we should forget about getting any descent response from India for any peace proposal from Pakistan. But that should not discourage Pakistan from trying for peace and stability in the region, which is extremely important for the people of Kashmir.

Let India reject the peace offers by Pakistan but do not leave India alone to impose its will on the people of Kashmir. Keep India engaged at all levels, continue to highlight Indian atrocities on the oppressed people of Kashmir, and yet maintain the offer made by Prime Minister Imran Khan that if India takes one step towards peace, Pakistan will take two.

We must understand that India is a difficult and an arrogant neighbor, but we cannot change it. Pakistan has done enough to make India understand that it cannot impose its will on Pakistan to accept Indian prescription of the dispute resolution; be it for Siachen or Sir Creek, or an all-important issue of J&K. Therefore, Pakistan’s peace offers are not from the position of weakness, as some analysts are suggesting, but from a high moral ground.

As we know that each war and conflict is followed by a Peace Treaty or an Agreement and there have been many such agreements between India and Pakistan already, therefore, one must not wait for another event of physical violence between the two nuclear neighbors.

I sincerely urge the governments of India and Pakistan that the new understanding reached to implement ceasefire agreement of 2003 must be given respect and time to lead into more productive engagement. This would help government of Pakistan put pressure on the hardline BJP government in India to relax its stance in the Vale and provide some relief to the stressed people of Kashmir.

I feel compelled to quote a long-term Cold War Soviet Foreign Minister Andre Gromyko that “Ten years of Talk is better than One Day of War.” I sincerely wish that the leadership of India and Pakistan understand this dictum from Gromyko and strive for an enduring peace between the two nuclear states. Peace between India and Pakistan would serve the cause of Kashmir in the long term because the just struggle of Kashmiris would not go waste. In my opinion it is the matter of time that Kashmiris would be given the Right of Self-determination, as promised to them under numerous UN Resolutions.

Dr Zia Ul Haque Shamsi is the author of the book ‘Nuclear Deterrence and Conflict Management Between India and Pakistan’ published by Peter Lang, New York. He is currently working as Director Research and National Security at SASSI University, Islamabad