Daily Times

The Middle East paints the pre-First World War chaotic scene of Europe when the states of the continent were engaged in shaking out of the then precariously maintained balance of power and readying to assert their nationalist authority by rebalancing and provoking strategic alliances. The revolt against the status quo in the continental politics led to two destructive World wars that finally determined the shape of the today’s Europe and heralded in a period of peace and stability. The Middle East is going through a similar strategic tumult and rebalancing with the Gulf States seeking new security cover mainly from Israel to keep at bay the Iranian-Turkish coalition.

The Western world used the Arab Spring to lay the foundation of a new Middle East weakening the strategically and politically stable autocracies and clearing the deck for the emergence of Israel as the superpower of the region. The ethnically diverse states of Syria, Iraq, Libya, Sudan that were a sort of counterweight to the Israeli expansion were targeted by design to reduce them to the pale shadow of their former selves. Their armies have disintegrated; their societies have been ripped apart by armed conflicts, and their stable economies destroyed irreparably by the Western world at the behest of the Gulf monarchies. Since over two decades, the Middle East has been witnessing this fiendish game of destruction, and bloodletting.

The arbitrary frontiers drawn by the colonial masters had sown the seeds of sectarian, parochial and ethnic conflicts in almost all the Middle Eastern states. The West fueled these conflicts to guarantee the survival and imperial expansion of Israel. With the radical Arab states embroiled in tribal, ethnic and sectarian conflicts and uncivil wars, and the US stepping back from the region that once constituted the cardinal plank of its foreign policy and making Israel powerful enough to fill in the vacuum, the Gulf monarchies, fearing the increasing strategic influence of Iran in the Arab lands, could not withstand the foreign pressure for rapprochement with Israel. They have finally acquiesced in the military strength of their former arch rival.

The Gulf States are not resilient enough to sustain a long war or battles of attrition as proved in Yemen and the Sunni insurgencies in Iraq and Syria

The strategic interests of the Gulf monarchies and Israel since years have comfortably been in sync to isolate and destroy Iran being the only remaining state in the Gulf region that through its proxies of Hezbollah and Hamas and other militant groups could pose a security challenge to Israel and constitute a formidable deterrence to its old expansionist designs as nurtured by the World Zionist Organization since 1940s. The diplomatic openings in the Gulf region has paved the way for the Zionist state to enhance its military footprints in the region with the obvious risk of keeping strategic tension aglow there. The tension would have dangerous repercussions for the South and South West and Central Asia.

The state of Israel has long ago evolved past the acute sense of insecurity or its obsession with survival among the hostile Arab countries, and now it has started implementing its second phase of its strategic plan to control the Middle East from the Mediterranean shores to Arabian Peninsula with all its natural resources and riches at the behest of the US-led Western world. It is really an ironic twist of history that today the Gulf monarchies are running helter and skelter for their survival and finding shelter under the security umbrella of their former bête noir. With its military supremacy already recognized by the Gulf States, the Jewish state would have greater influence on the foreign and defence policies of the Arab monarchies.

The tiny state of Israel has proved wrong the theory of the size of population, resources, strength of army as the effective elements of state power. What counts is the spirit of nationhood, acute sense of survival, strategic planning, compact fighting force with the state of art training, weaponry and technology. The Arabs destroyed the collective power of the region by their myopic political and strategic policies driven by mutual antagonism. Since centuries of the recent history, Arabs have been living under the protection of foreign powers and strategists – Turks, the command of the Lawrence of Arabia, British and French empires, US and now Israel. They have never been a match to Israel or the compact and resilient Persian nation. The strategic dependence of Arabs on Israel would unfold sooner than later.

What we are witnessing is the alarming scenario of a rising power – Israel and the politically and strategically well-entrenched state of Iran – in the Arab region heading towards a military confrontation. Israel would never want a powerful state of Iran to be a thorn in its rib – free from the sanctions with the revival of the JCPOA or its enemy going nuclear. Iran, with its experience in unorthodox wars through its powerful proxies in the Arab region or its capacity for a long war would certainly try to counter Israeli expansion. The Gulf States are not resilient enough to sustain a long war or battles of attrition as proved in Yemen and the Sunni insurgencies in Iraq and Syria. This leaves them with the only option of a short, swift and effective attack on Iran by Israel with their agreement and support. Would this suck in Turkey?

Added to this possible military conflagration would be the strategic interests of Russia and China. Russia, by its military presence in Syria, has become an important stakeholder in the Arab region. China, with its long term BRI and CPEC Project, and its agreement for a decade-long heavy investments in Iran and oil interests in the Gulf region is the second important stakeholder. Any military confrontation in the region would lead to a dangerous standoff between the three world powers – the US, Russia and China. Thus, the US role in this troubled region would be crucial to restrain Israel and its Gulf allies from any military confrontation with Iran by moderating their fears about Iran going nuclear and their intense opposition to the revival of JCPOA. The situation is precariously unpredictable.

The author was a member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and he has authored two books