Daily Times

Through a historic nationwide referendum on June 23, the outright majority of Britons chose to ignore forecasts of financial doom and diminished global clout to opt out of the European Union (EU). In the process, they tuned out world leaders like US President Barack Obama, who had warned free-agent Britain would start at the “back of the queue” for bilateral trade deals, and financial gurus including Bank of England governor Mark Carney who grimly predicted a recession if the UK quit the union. The final tally showed 30 million people voted in the referendum, a 72 percent voter turnout, and 52 percent of them said, “Sayonara, EU.”

Earlier in May, in my column titled “Rest in peace, European Union?”, I had mused whether the clock was running out on the European Project. Britons, after all, were not the only ones frustrated with the centralisation of power in Brussels. Indeed, following the Brexit vote, right-wing euro-sceptics throughout Europe have begun calling for their own national referendums. The highest decibels of that emanate from France, currently at loggerheads with local labour unions triggered by EU calls for longer working hours for less overtime to make French businesses more competitive. This does not amuse the French, who jealously guard their 35-hour work-week.

That said, the UK post-Brexit is in a real pickle. The vote exposed deep divisions among Britons in how they viewed the net benefits of EU membership, and brought to the surface hard questions about the future utility of the UK for its member countries. For while England and Wales overwhelmingly voted to leave the EU, these numbers were reversed by equal margins in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The Scots, moreover, are livid. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is adamant that Westminster cannot force Scotland to kowtow to Brexit, calling it “democratically unacceptable,” while hinting a redux of the 2014 independence referendum was “highly likely” to “protect Scotland’s place in the EU.” It bears remembering that two years ago, the Scots by a surplus of 10 points shunned independence from the UK primarily because they wanted to retain their EU membership. Now the situation has turned on
its head.

Nationalists in Northern Ireland are similarly unhappy at the result, bemoaning their being “dragged…out of the EU” by English voters who have “overturned the democratic will of Northern Ireland.” Erstwhile separatists and longtime Westminster foes, Sinn Féin, are consequently calling for a “border poll” under the Belfast Agreement to determine if Northern Irishmen now wish to leave the UK and reunite with the republic of Ireland to keep their place in the EU.

Naturally, an affirmative vote for Brexit was destined to cut short political careers, and the culling this time started at the very top with Prime Minister David Cameron. The Tory leader announced he would step down in October, citing the need for “fresh leadership” to negotiate his country’s divorce from Europe. Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn also faces an internal mutiny over accusations of lax campaigning for the “Remain” camp, with Labour members of parliament having already passed a non-binding motion of no-confidence in his leadership.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan, meanwhile, stares at a sink-or-swim start to his tenure as the city’s top official after an online petition signed by over 100,000 constituents urged him to seek London’s own split from his majesty’s government. Why? Because the petitioners believe London is “a world city” that ought to “remain at the heart of Europe.” Low-grade riots also broke out in London following official results when young voters firmly in the Remain camp spilled out into the streets, blaming voters aged 40 and above for pushing the “Leave” camp over the edge. By backing Brexit, the youth railed, the older generation “stole” their future.

The fallout from Brexit threatens to turn even more chaotic. According to another online petition, a scarcely believable three million Britons hanker for a second referendum on EU membership, although Cameron had earlier dismissed the likelihood of “neverendums,” insisting June 23 marked a “once in a generation, once in a lifetime” event. EU leaders responded testily to news the UK was bailing out of the union, urging Cameron not to slow-walk the invocation of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty specific to affiliates wanting out.

European Parliament President Martin Schulz immediately denounced Westminster’s decision to mull things over till October, calling it akin to “taking the whole continent hostage,” while European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker waxed philosophical in admitting “It is not an amicable divorce, but it was also not an intimate love affair.” The UK had long demanded exceptional status within the EU that grated on continental politicians, many of whom will secretly celebrate Brexit as a boon for the union.

Unsurprisingly, the financial ramifications of Brexit for both the UK and equity markets around the world are already kinetic. Panic selling pursuant to the result wiped close to two trillion dollars from global stock valuation as the pound sterling crashed to a 31-year low against the US dollar. Credit rating agency Moody’s also downgraded UK debt from “stable” to “negative” in view of what it believes will be “a prolonged period of uncertainty.” The flight of capital from London to European financial centres is also a big worry for Westminster.

No one is sure who will have the last laugh here. Obama had selfishly hoped cooler heads would prevail on Brexit and keep the union intact so he could fast-track his beloved Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Cameron had similarly hoped Brexit was a mere fad stoked by demagogues like Boris Johnson, who naively promised Britons freedom from EU tyranny and making Britain great again. In two years time, the UK will have full control of its borders and the ability to spend its budget as it pleases, free from EU diktats — both core planks of the Leave campaign. Less certain is whether Scotland and Northern Ireland will be around to celebrate this freedom.

The writer is an Islamabad-based freelance journalist