Daily Times

From kaniya kumara to Himalayas and from Himalayas to Gawader, strange winds are blowing. These winds are spreading rumors as if like the western ghatts bananas of India, these are loaded with radioactive potassium isotope, which makes the monkey shine at night and results in an even easier monkey business of some civil nuclear deal. Enormous reserves of thorium (25%of the total world reserves) spread all along the southern coast of India. From pressurized heavy water reactors to fast breeders or thermal breeder reactors, India is trying to curb walk through all three, that is, uranium, plutonium and thorium. Having a stock pile bonanza gives many advantages on one hand and privileges on the other. NSG waiver, civil nuclear deal and special treaty status along recent security and friendship alliances has made India the poster child who is adequately fed with formula milk and radioactive bananas. Thus India has developed its own Atomic habits. A recent development is very significant, though it seems that it can generate a butterfly effect at some later stage. A U.N. treaty went into effect (just few days ago) banning the producing, testing, possessing and stock piling of the nuclear weapons. Fifty states ratified it, none wearing the nuclear sleeves, but still for the first time as it is proffered and nurtured by the U.N. It has technically become a part of international law requiring treaty actions as and when the butterflies gather together flapping their tiny wings.Vipinnarang’s catalytic posture, assured retaliation and the asymmetric escalation concepts are weaved around a partisan approach (especially towards Pakistan) to create a nuclear apartheid. So, Pakistan developed its own nuclear habits. Different nuclear regimes have been casted in the mold of setting a nuclear free world despite an immense power struggle with in the nation states. The whole nuclear debate of today is wrapped in dilemmas and paradoxes, it is pertinent to understand these and be the part of nuclear debate which is just at the corner, after the latest banning of nuclear weapons. First paradox, nuclear weapons were developed as mass killing weapons with a negative utilitarian concept of breaking the will of an opponent through unfathomable destruction, a dark humor  indeed. Example Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Ironically this is still valid specially in nuclear asymmetric environments. Second paradox is of the missile gap between two nuclear protagonists, this will always remain there and will work as a pendulum, initiating an arms race. Third paradox is the different understanding of nuclear strategy by the military nuclear strategists and the civilian nuclear strategists, example is the decision making process in the USA to go nuclear during first nuclear age and the flexible response during second nuclear age. The age of Brzezinski, Kahn and Kissinger is almost over. Fourth paradox is the theory of just war, the western moral doctrine and the jihadist doctrine. During 60s and 70s the nuclear debate was spearheaded by the informed clergy of west, especially in USA.

Present day secular strategist are way busy in other more important things than the nuclear debate. The western clergy is also now more focused on Armageddon

The secular strategist respected the moral debate and yielded. The non-proliferation treaty was actually the result of one such universal effort. Present day secular strategist are way busy in other more important things than the nuclear debate. The western clergy is also now more focused on Armageddon. Fifth paradox is that of precision in weapon systems and, that CEP (circular error probable), both artillery terms. Earlier nuclear weapons were used to overcome the deficiency of these two, now due to RMA(revolution in military affairs) these two aspects are overly catered for, thus again scaling any conflict to have cross nuclear thresholds at its early stages. The last paradox is the claiming of second strike capability by both the protagonists, this is very dangerous stage, both at this, means, technical failure of comprehensive deterrence and the setting off the nuclear sparkling by strategic elite, whichever is psychologically compromised at the first bending of nerves. The escalation ladder in this case has very few rungs. The nuclear strategy of last seven decades clearly indicates that it is based on the prudent application of ethical theory, deterrence and the game theory of mathematics.In nuclear strategy, the players, events, structures and weapons are all numbers, a good strategist knows how and when to add, subtract or multiply. From massive retaliation, to mutual assured destruction or to the flexible response, it is all calculations. Nuclear war strategy is quite different from the nuclear war techniques, as a nuclear war fortunately has never happened therefore the main principle is not how to fight a nuclear war, rather it is to how not let it happen, ever and ever after. Pakistan as a responsible nuclear state favors the concept of Global Zero, in all nuclear control regimes, Pakistan made it clear that there is regional concept of security which it follows, it cannot ignore India with whom it has fought wars. Still despite the preferential treatment to India as a nuclear darling, Pakistan offered India to have a bilateral test ban treaty. On the lines of NPT, it proposed India to have make this region as a nuclear weapon free zone (NWFZ). Pakistan has not signed FMCT due to the fissile material differential which is way tilted in the favor of India. As a principle, Pakistan respects the shannan mandate and has aspired that it applies upon India as well. Conclusively India has to change its nuclear habits. Global zero or ban on nuclear weapons cannot be effective till bilateral nuclear equations between protagonist states are solved without applying the differentials. There are nuclear triangles entangling with each other, nuclear weapon free world is not a pipe dream, can be achieved, but through will, sincerity, parity and morality. Certainly not through the nuclear jargon, acronyms and the medieval   clichés buried under dust waiting the smooth silky flapping of tiny wings of butterflies.