Daily Times

If any situation appears to give even a delusion of the possibility of a political discord between any two major countries, the first words Pakistani intelligentsia — ranging from retired military generals participating in TV talk shows to the aspiring candidates for passing the examination of central superior services — utter are the “Cold War.” The adjective “new” is added to historically differentiate any fresh political dissonance from the one dubbed as the Cold War that continued for four decades from 1949 to 1989 between the US and the former Soviet Union.

Interestingly, the major war as per its duration and multiplex nature that Pakistan experienced after its birth was the Cold War. One reason Pakistani intelligentsia is obsessed with the Cold War may be that it helped Pakistanis do nothing but take sides and play second fiddle to the power Pakistan was allied with. The trappings of the alignment were affluence, weapons and prominence. The second reason may be that it empowered Pakistanis in two different ways: nationalistic and ideological. As per a given situation, Pakistanis became entitled to declare any dissenting voice of a fellow Pakistani either a traitor or an apostate, the ultimate fate of which was death.

In those four decades, Pakistan kept on practising the same. Old habits die hard. Pakistan still persists with them but the stock of justifications is fast running out. Instead of doing away with the maladies that somehow devoured thousands of Pakistani lives, Pakistani intelligentsia have been waiting for a new Cold War since 1990 to take place in the region to benefit Pakistan in some form. Pakistanis who reaped the benefits of the Cold War — whether politically, religiously or institutionally — still wish for its recurrence.

When the US and its allies attacked Afghanistan in October 2001, one of the theories bandied about in Pakistan was that the attack would herald the beginning of a new Cold War. However, the regime in Kabul was changed, the Taliban fled away, an interim government was installed, and general elections took place twice in Afghanistan, but no signs of any new Cold War appeared to rescue the Taliban or take the revenge of the past. Russia remained reticent and disinterested. Even the late General Hameed Gul kept waiting for a decade to let the new Cold War start in the region but nothing of the sort happened. Contrary to Gul’s peddled prophecies, the US did not dig wells to tap any ounce of hidden oil from Afghanistan’s land, nor did the US excavate Afghanistan’s mountains to extract precious stones and metals. Similarly, the US did not declare Afghanistan an alternative place to a would-be independent valley of Kashmir to construct a mega-monitoring centre to look over the whole region of Central Asia, including activities of China and Russia. All hopes to revel in the possibility of a new Cold War in the region have yet not been fulfilled.

When a disagreement appeared between the US and Russia on Syria in October 2011, the time the Syrian crisis broke out, and in September 2015 when Russia defended the regime of the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from crumbling under any external or internal pressure, the proponents of the new Cold War again became vocal in Pakistan. Instead, Russia started pressurising the Syrian regime to figure out a political solution to the crisis. However, in November 2015 when a Turkish air force jet shot down a Russian jet near the Syria-Turkey border, the proponents again became sure of the beginning of a long overdue Cold War. However, in June 2016, Turkish President Tayyab Edrogan who was siding with the US apologised to Russia over the downing of the Russian jet, and with that the hopes for the new Cold War shattered again.

Any US-China disagreement appearing in the Pacific Ocean, especially in the South China Sea, also raises hopes for the beginning of the new Cold War, this time between the US and China to include Pakistan as well. Pakistani intelligentsia have a firm belief that India is willing to act as a handle of the door the pivot of which lies in the South China Sea. Whether or not the pivot theory enthralls Indians, Pakistani intelligentsia thinks that the US intends to use India to counterbalance China in the region. This point is further supported by the argument that this was the main reason why the US offered a nuclear energy deal to India in October 2008 and not to Pakistan. It is not known how many times India has been used in the past to contain China; similarly, it is not known if Indians who are endeavouring to make India an economic giant are ready to afford a conflict with China to appease the US. However, it is known that in September 2008 when the US sought exemptions for India from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to let the US and some other countries enter into nuclear commerce with India for civilian nuclear fuel and technology, China did not veto the exemptions. The then US president George W Bush had telephonically persuaded the then Chinese president Hu Jintao to allow India exemptions. Similarly, it is known that in September 2014, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged to invest US $20 billion in India over five years, including setting up two industrial parks. India is still trying to persuade China to let it enter the NSG in the near future.

Unfortunately, the countries famous for launching a Cold War have changed their survival tactics. First, they have learnt that countries falling in their bloc feed on the conflict and seep away their resources. Secondly, any troublesome incident affecting their Cold War ally would be blamed on them. Thirdly, they have made Pakistanis inured of the Cold War. Hence, they have learnt to keep the doors of negotiations and alternative options open, and keep on disappointing Pakistani intelligentsia.

The writer is a freelance columnist and can be reached at qaisarrashid@yahoo.com