Daily Times

The fact that COVID19 is here to stay and that we shouldn’t let our guards down so early is quite blatant by now (or at least it is expected to be so). All around the world we are facing what is being termed as the anticipated Second Wave of Coronavirus. Cases in the U.S. hit a new record with exceeding 129,000, while the UK has imposed its second national lockdown. Europe is experiencing a surge as well despite lockdowns. Situation in Pakistan might be under control at the moment but on a relative level the number of cases have risen considerably. If immediate action isn’t taken we might have another wave of COVID19 ravaging the country’s health-care system and the economy.

Another lockdown should be imminent – we all know that delay in imposing one causes more damage (both economic and otherwise) as compared to if the Hammer is dropped right away and then Dance as matters improve. In this regard, a European Scientist from Pakistani diaspora, Tahir Mahmood, has recently devised an approach for what he terms as a Knowledge Based Lockdown published by APPS UK Association of Pakistan Physicians and Surgeons. COVID19 has been mutating all the while. So we aren’t sure whether this wave will be more dangerous than the last one. However, research continues to show that it is getting worse. COVID19 not only attacks your lungs but your brain, heart and even blood vessels, leading some to think if this is in reality a vascular (blood) disease. Owing to these mutations the process of creating a durable vaccine also gets affected.

Tahir, in his paper titled “Knowledge Based Decision Making Support System “DSS” With Balance Score Card “BSC” And Dynamic Process Model “DPM”, he posits that whenever there has been discussions about a lockdown (smart, partial or full) three groups namely, Administrative government, doctor and health experts and finally public, always end up in a conflict of sorts. This difference of opinion creates a cognitive dissonance posing danger to the collective well-being of the country and its people.

There is a need to train and develop a human capital that is trained in such models as everything in this world is in essence a process. The need for a scientific approach to resolve and counter crisis is extremely relevant and important in today’s world.

He concludes that an epidemic of this extent and magnitude can only be tackled with solutions that have “operational value” and have been fully mapped and evaluated with each gap and variables related to the solution. The purpose is to create a harmony with the “contents of the problem” to “contents of solution” there being a pragmatic connection between the both. Given that the pandemic affects us at various levels such as health, food, education, transport, travel, economy and jobs etcetera, the response needs to be extremely well integrated at social ends. In other words a composite counter operation including organizations, institutions, directorates and ministries.

The aim is to save government resources both financial and human that require interventions at the most “appropriate node of the problem with most appropriate functional force”. One such example is the state of fear that is even more dangerous than the virus itself with measurable negative effects on the patients’ health and immunity against the said disease. A coordinated effort is needed to take away the fear and replace it with the right amount of caution. Another example is the need to have a single narrative through publications, media broadcasting services and political leadership.

The Knowledge Based Lockdown approach takes into account a number of controllable (SOPs, Screening, Testing, Treatment Options etc.) and uncontrollable (Immunity Status, Age, Health of the organs, Mutation in the virus) factors dividing them into Micro (Internal) and Macro (External) and give us a model therein all these variables and counter variables along with Algorithm can be transformed to a DPM to integrate with other tools and actions like balance score card and corona comprehensive risk spread sheets to develop a final DSS.

It’s evident that Pakistan has been successful to counter the first corona wave with smart lockdown applied, based on experience and observation for which administration has been highly appreciated globally – the question, however, is that during second wave what the government can do to add value to traditional smart lock down. This is where Knowledge Based Lockdown steps in.

As a conclusion, in the most dynamic world of events, we have to introduce the Dynamic counter compatible methods which can only be achieved through knowledge based approach and not randomly selected copy paste, observation and experience based approach. There is a need to train and develop a human capital that is trained in such models as everything in this world is in essence a process. The need for a scientific approach to resolve and counter crisis is extremely relevant and important in today’s world.

As Tahir states that an innovative designing technique of process modelling can be used in countering diverse challenges to use in almost all complex problems  for developing national action plan, project plans , preventive programs, social integration ,countering  epidemics ,solving social, religious and political problems including extremism, radicalization, dialogue making, countering sectarian violence, resolving extreme political conflicts, regional disputes, international conflicts, separatism, eliminating public revolt and strikes,  methods for eliminating state subsidies and good governance etc.

Economic and Geopolitical Analyst; Global Oil Market Analyst