Daily Times

American presidents have long wanted the US to be self-sufficient when it comes to oil, and if former Vice President Joe Biden wins the presidency, he will likely have a similar agenda but with an added emphasis on clean energy.

During President Donald Trump’s administration, the U.S. has become the world’s largest energy producer, surpassing both Russia and Saudi Arabia in oil production. It also became a net exporter of oil, when including refined products like diesel, jet fuel and gasoline.

“We finally became energy independent. Every president since Nixon — nine presidents — have been calling for energy independence, and we finally achieved it and now we’ll see what happens,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. U.S. oil production peaked at 13.1 million barrels a day this year, before declining as Covid-19 slammed the world economy and sapped oil demand. U.S. oil production fell for a while below 10 million barrels a day, but was again averaging 10.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, according to U.S. government data.

“It was the Obama administration that presided over the rapid expansion of U.S. oil and gas. They talked about it as independence and a freer hand in foreign policy,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC. She said the Trump administration has taken the discussion further to the issue of U.S. dominance in oil, where it could be “weaponized” or used as a heavy handed policy lever.

“It’s a favored industry under [Trump]. He has championed the industry,” said Croft. When Obama won the White House in 2008, the U.S. was producing just 5 million barrels a day, and by 2015, production had climbed to 9.5 million barrels before falling off in 2016. Biden has said he won’t end fracking, a U.S.-developed process oil and gas producers used to get at hard to reach oil. But Biden’s critics say he will side with the more progressive wing of his party, which would like to end fracking. But while Biden’s Energy plan includes $2 trillion in clean energy initiatives, it does not extinguish oil and gas production. Analysts said he may increase regulation of the sector, by limiting methane emissions, and he said he will limit fracking on federal land.

“I think he will look at oil prices and oil diplomacy through the lens of the broader global economy, the U.S. economy and U.S. jobs,” said Croft. “I think he’ll look at it as an important economic input. Whereas, I think President Trump really thought of the industry as something of a strategic importance and it needed to be protected. I think for Biden, oil policy will remain important, but it will be part of a broader economic input.”

“A Biden win would likely impact and solidify the relationship between Russia and Saudi Arabia,” Morse wrote.

Russia could be subject to more financial sanctions for a number of issues, including meddling in the U.S. election. Morse said for Saudi Arabia, U.S. support could cool and it could focus on the Saudi human rights record, including the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.