Daily Times

THE European Union (EU) recently celebrated the 60th anniversary of its founding treaty, The Treaty of Rome, which established the European Economic Community. After centuries of war, upheaval, and mass killings, Europe remained peaceful and democratic. It had set an exemplary precedent of political and economic union to the world by exhibiting the principles of solidarity, brotherhood, and unity. It developed an internal single market through standardized system of laws that apply in all member states.  EU policies aim to ensure the free movement of people, goods, services, and capital within the internal market. Most of the emerging regional organizations: ASEAN; SAARC; OIC; and SCO are struggling to become a union be-all like the EU to ensure socio-economic resilience. Notably, none Marshall Plan of the US could have ever helped progressing Europe after the WWII if the bond of European states were not made. Even though the slogan ‘Brotherhood’ of the Muslim world has also failed to unite the 57 Muslims states, while the EU does not have any typical slogan to entice consonance. However, the European Union is in tatters, continuing to reel from Brexit as rightwing xenophobes, populist movements, unemployment in Greece and Spain, debt and stagnation in Italy make inroads into mainstream politics across the continent. Thus, the EU could barely survive with Germany and France any time sooner after the Brexit.

There have been basically three main powers; Britain; France; and Germany in the union. They were in agreement to provide financial support to the divisive pool for the prosperity of all struggling states into the fold of union depriving coastal area, fertile land, and developed human resource. Certainly, behind the coherency or harmony of EU, these states strengthened the dignity of Europe which was once tormented by the conflict between the Axis and Allied powers during the Second World War.

Keeping in view that Britain; France; and Germany have been rivals to one another as was in the annals of history as today. Their apparent harmonious relationship was their faith in strong union to build bulwark against Russian penetration in Europe. They were usually gravitated towards one another after the foreign threat which kept them together. Resultantly, they were rescued from hostile neighbourhood, scourge of trilateral domestic intervention, imposition of trade barriers, and clash of civilization. Hence the Europe grew with stability, peace and security.

After the Brexit and transformation of American civilian leadership, instability seems inevitable following the paradigm shift of international order. The union is getting weaker gradually due to declining inter harmony and denial of the financial support to Europe by the US. Let alone Berlin and Paris find it difficult to shoulder the financial burden of all European states especially owing to indulgence in socio-economic race. They desire to get Britain back in. But, the conflated policies of US and Britain are emerging after the exit from the union.

However, the EU witnesses tremor today after the Brexit through the conduct of referendum. The referendum was comprised mainly of twice ideological people with different ages. The ageing people did not want Britain’s integration with the bloc for being growing tide of immigrants emanating from the war-torn countries and the fear of subsequent threat of terrorism, while the youngsters dissented, since they are interested in cross border recreational visa free visits. Hence, the ageing secured majority of votes for the Brexit which paved the ground for crumbling Kingdom in terms of Scottish demand of independence — one is stunned to see Kingdom like an islet, if ever happened.

Germany and France now express repugnance against providing financial support to the bloc to meet the needs of all European countries. In fact they likely express the intention of isolationist policies akin to that of contemporary American policies. Even though, the US has categorically refused to pour in more financial aid for the EU and NATO military alliance. Moreover, the US also tends to step back from the pact on Climate Change to make a discord. In a reactionary response, Germany unleashed a volley of criticism against the US, slamming its myopia. Moreover, Angela Markel, Chancellor of Germany, also said that Britain may no longer be completely reliable partners now. She further added that the west has become weaker after the US’s isolationist policies.

Furthermore, the change of American focus from Pacific Rim to Indian Ocean has jolted the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). Only a ray of hope with Pacific states prevails that the US has to counter the augmenting nuclear threat of North Korea. In this way, the sway of US goes untainted despite China’s increase of tentacles in Pacific, European and Asian region.

Undoubtedly America loses the support of Germany despite a traditional close ally. America may also lose control its influence over Japan and South Korea if the North Korea targets either state militarily. Japan would also likely abdicate its notion of ‘nuclear-free world’ under militarization in NK, as it cannot afford to meet the doomsday once again. Under such a situation, a short war between US and NK could be expected if China hands up to convince NK of cessation of nuclear armaments. One must also not lose sight of the fact that if ever the US wins control over the nuclear weapons of NK, the South China Sea would be slipped away from the hands of China. This will result in revitalization of the TPP developed under the former Obama administration. Consequently, the US would be able to retain its might for long.

While on the other hand, Britain can no longer afford to give up tying with the European states in order to retain the spirit of trade pacts after the Brexit. Upon the refusal of Germany and France to shore up the union, the European states may seek increase of the proportionality of EU membership to countries like China, Turkey, and other Asian states. In doing so, the European Union would be turned into Eurasian Members Union. The One Belt, One Road of China’s network may benefit all European states in consequence. After all, a greater Europe cannot be built without strong EU governance and visionary leadership, which are presently missing.

According to the founder of European Economic Community; Robert Schuman, “Europe will not be made all at once, or according to a single plan. It will be built through concrete achievements which first create a de facto solidarity.” Let us find the choice of collective savvy of European leaders to reunite the Europe or to get merged with Asia either.

The writer is an independent journalist and political commentator